Discussion for article #247054
This is the contest (the Democratic one) this evening I am really interested in and will be an important indicator on how the race may begin to solidify. While the GOP kamikaze assault on Drumpf begins to ramp up towards their Blitzkrieg next week might be “entertaining” and all, seeing how the first major “rust-belt” primary turns out will be telling on the Democratic side.
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Where are these numbers coming from?
MI results are not released until the polls close in the upper panhandle counties (9 p.m. EST)
The lower peninsula I would imagine. They’re done and probably can be tabulated. And so is most of the U.P. except those few counties…but still, I get your point. Release them all when the entire state polls close. Panhandle…Hah.
I know the lower-part of the state is ET, but they have always been embargoed until the polls close in the CT time-zone counties.
WTF?
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Maybe we’re thinking of the general election. I can’t recall what happened last week let alone what happened 4 or 8 years ago in the primaries.
Don’t know Michigan geography very well, but it looks like Bernie does well in rural counties.
Looks like Wayne is not yet reported much. Once results from there start coming in, we get a clearer picture.
Wayne county has so far reported less than a Detroit city-blocks worth so it is waaaaaaay too early to tell. Less than a 1,000 votes from Wayne county (detroit) and a lot of the counties that are going for big percentage-wise for Sanders have reported in and actual vote difference is less than a few hundred. Like Huron county, 100% reported, Sanders 52%. But the total votes in the enitre county is 2,234 and Sanders beat Clinton there by 134 votes. That is less than a typical city block of voters in Detroit.
Not saying Sanders might not perfom well, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
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I got approximately 8 calls from the Bernie Sanders campaign in the last 2 days, either pre-recorded or somebody asking me to vote for Bernie. He has lots of you kids here working for him out of Detroit. I got one or two calls from a Democratic Rep. running from my district for the State House who I know, and only one from the Hillary campaign…also out of Detroit. Haven’t seen any signs except Bernie signs in W. MI and she seems to have done a lot of micro-targeting of the Black community on the East side of the State. Very little here where I live. But I still think she’ll do well but not sure by how much now. I’m originally from Oakland County and I’m getting sick of how MSNBC distills and characterizes these counties. Its really sorta bullshit. I live in Kent county now and GR is somewhat Democratic but the rest of the county is fairly Republican.
I think the question for Michigan is how big is Hillary going to win.
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Exactly. I’ll be shocked if Bernie overtakes her here. But like was mentioned somewhere…we haven’t had an open primary with both Republicans and Democrats voting in the same primary in 20 years. There’s some people thinking they’ll do some mischief by strategically voting for the other side…It never works and I don’t know why people think it will.
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He will lose, but as long as he doesn’t lose by over 20 points then he will claim it as a win and say that we gotta wait for latter races and etc etc etc.
It blows my mind that nearly a gross of people in the early returns voted for Lindsay Graham. What’s the point?
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Decision Desk HQ called it for Hillary. Not sure about calling it at this point… and their % reported number lags behind, for that matter. Really not sure, unless they have a pretty good idea about Wayne and others outstanding. But it is way too early IMO.
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/dem/president/michigan/
I think Sanders so far is over performing in Michigan. I think it will be a tight one. Maybe even a Sanders upset.
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One of the greatest polling errors in history, if that happens.
I’m far from an expert on Michigan, but it seems like two counties to keep a close eye on are Gennessee County (where Flint is located) and Wayne County (where Detroit is located).
As of right now (9:30ish) only 6% of Gennessee County precincts have reported – compared to about 25% of precincts statewide – and Hillary is leading by nearly 30 points. And there was reportedly very heavy turnout in Flint (which is awesome, by the way, completely apart from who it might help or hurt). All this suggests that Gennessee will probably be a rich source of additional votes for Hillary as more precincts there report.
Meanwhile, only about 7% of Wayne County precincts have reported, so far. Among those that have, Bernie has about a 10% lead. If this is at all reflective of the way the County as a whole turns out, that would be extremely good news for Bernie. But for all I know those 7% of precincts might include mostly white suburbs or college campus areas or something like that. Too early to tell how things are really going there.
Overall, it looks to me like Bernie will probably outperform the polling averages by a good margin. Whether he can actually hold on to the narrow lead he has in the first 25% of precincts to report…I’m skeptical based on the geographic and demographic considerations, and which counties have and haven’t reported a lot of their precincts yet. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s pretty close.
Edit: With 20% of Wayne County precincts reporting, now Hillary is ahead there by about 7 points.
Kent, Geneese and Wayne counties are the 800 lbs. gorillas in the state. So far Sanders is losing Wayne by a slight margin, but over-performing anticipated breakouts in that county according to demographics. Still way early, but he seems to be doing well in MI.
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There are huge disparities in population in MI counties - much of this state is very rural. Look for Washtenaw (where Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti are) and Kent (where Grand Rapids is) and Ingham (where Lansing is) as well as Oakland, in addidtion to Wayne and Gennesee.
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