She always does what Mitch tells her to do.
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Still my favorite famous quote.
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True, both times LePage won a very narrow 30-something percent victory by simply holding Republicans together. Meanwhile, the Democratic vote was being split by a Democratic-leaning independent. Thereās nothing Democrats couldāve done short of kidnapping Cutler, the third party candidate who insisted on running a second time despite watching four years of LePageās rolling shitshow.
As much the article makes it sound like this was some kind of altruistic decision, I canāt help but wonder if her decision stems from having received some bad internal polling. She may be thinking sheād do better to stick it out in the Senate and end her career there rather than be humiliated with a loss in the governorās race.
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Third candidate spoiler, yes. But the first time it was actually the independent (Cutler) who got more votes than the Democrat and came in second, which means arguably the third-place Democrat played the āspoilerā role in that case. But the next time the positions were reversed, with Cutler coming in a distant third. At least thatās my recollection.
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you are correct.
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Going back to a now-pretty-much-moot discussion I had with @daveyjones64 the other day, I wonder if there might have been bad internal polling related to her standing with the GOP base, and thus her chances in the GOP gubernatorial primary, rather than her chances in the general.
In other words, how badly has the GOP base there been Trumpinated and LePaged and Bannonized, and thus what were the chances that she might have had a real fight on her hands in the GOP primary?
@publishermike, as a Mainer (Maineiac?) can you offer any insight on this? Is the GOP rank-and-file in Maine moving away from Collins and more in the direction of Trump / LePage?
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Could be. Iād like to think she feels she could be a check on Trumpās agenda.
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āShe has played a key role on a number of other bipartisan efforts over the years ā she was one of just two Republicans to vote for President Obamaās $800 billion stimulus package in 2009, casting the deciding votes for a deal that many economists credit with halting the economic collapse.ā
IIRC Collins was one of three Republicans who voted for the stimulus package, along with Olympia Snowe (ME) and Arlen Spector (PA), who later switched parties and lost in 2012.
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Thatās exactly what I was thinking. It may not be that sheād have any trouble winning the general election, but you gotta win the primary first. The fact that LePage was able to win twice with 30+% of the vote suggests thereās a not small % of crazies, and theyāre Republican.
Could be, but he really doesnāt have an agenda. His agenda is whatever the Republican agenda is, and she mostly agrees with it.
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ME2 is pretty much batshit crazy and the perfect example of the riled-up Trump base, so Iām thinking that if internal polling is the driver of this decision, it showed her getting trounced up in The County.
However, Collins is popular enough here that she easily could have bypassed the GOP primary altogether and run as an Independent and most likely won.
I think that she truly views her self as one of the last remaining moderate GOP voices in WDC and might be hoping to hang on the help guide it out of the disaster of Trumpism.
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While it is true LaPage won the first time with under 38% of the vote, he won the second time around with a tad over 48%.
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Thanks. And for those who donāt know, the term āThe Countyā is often used in Maine to refer to Aroostook County (the very large, farthest northeast county, very rural and very conservative). At least Iām assuming that was what you were referring to.
The possibility of Collins running for governor as an independent is what Davey and I were chatting about. I had been wondering if she might go that route to avoid potentially losing the GOP primary to a Trump / LePage aligned candidate.
But at any rate I agree, it may well be that Collins truly sees her role in the Senate, as a (relative) GOP moderate, and ā as in the case of Obamacare repeal ā an obstacle to some of the worst excesses of Trumpism, as more important than a gubernatorial run.
Of course it could be some of both.
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And I doubt more than a tiny fraction of those were Democrats voting for him, so to me that implies that there must be a substantial number of crazies/haters among the independents as well.
Yes, but sheās taken a firm stand against repeal, and she might oppose a budget-busting tax cut bill it it comes to a vote.
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No doubt but I would also say Michaud was far from an ideal candidate to appeal to independents. Interesting note from the first LaPage election. Many liberal Dems, such as my activist sister, voted for Cutler rather than the Dem because they thought it was the only way to stop LaPage. That skewed the numbers somewhat in the first election.
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Agree. I voted early for Mitchell in that race, and if I had waited until Election Day, I probably would have switched to Cutler in a attempt to stop LePage.
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Not really, since the GOP would get to keep the seat whatever until at least 2020, but thatās actually a good thing. Now Collins wonāt be an imposing candidate for governor, and the Democrats should have a much better chance to pick up governor in time for redistricting. Being able to block a GOP gerrymander is worth more than a Senate seat.