Yep, Scotty has eagerly advertised that he’ll swallow. Don’t know if Jeb is willing to go that far.
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Jebster will have to one-up him. Probably let them finish in his hair or something.
So far, though, it almost seems like he’s doing this out of habit. I don’t know if he thinks being a Bush means he thinks it’ll be handed to him, or if he just doesn’t really give a shit and he’s doing it because it’s the family business.
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That way my reaction too, and it may in fact turn out accurate, but I have another theory.
I’ve been to a number of the crazy red websites and they HATE Jebya, but there is one way to get their grudging respect which is to do a pro forma pay the respects show courage appearance in Iowa without overdoing it. Now, it could be Bush already figures he’s done something like that and extra time spent on a bullshit straw poll he’s not ever going to win no matter what is wasted; or he may think shunning Iowa is it’s own sufficint display of courage, especially given he might not win much if anything in the ISP. But the act of going to Iowa and letting the local hyenas have the carcass of his appearance to feed off of does have some arguable value since it’s tougher to spin as him just throwing straw in Iowa’s face.
Regardless, this is AMONG the available ‘smart moves’, and it’s no doubt calculated as such.
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It has a poor track record because it tends to bankrupt the winner. Which is precisely why Romney chose to skip it last go around.
Bush won’t do well in Iowa anyway, so my guess is he is lower the expectation bar by announcing he is skipping this so early (I mean, he hasn’t even formally announced his candidacy yet). So when he places 4th or 5th he can just shrug it off with “Oh, I didn’t really campaign there…just wait till NH”.
The problem with that approach, however, is he has to do well in NH. I doubt anyone can afford to finish in the middle of the pack for both Iowa and NH with such a crowded field. Not unless they want to bleed money and political blood through a long primary fight…which is probably what Bush is prepared to do. The question hanging over their heads is, how weakened does he come by a long primary?
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Oh, he will spend plenty of time kissing hands and shaking babies in Iowa. He is just blowing off the straw poll, which I agree, is probably a smart move. Its not so much the time and effort…its the enormous expense with little to no payback. More often than not, those that do well in it have to bow out of the race because they lack the funds to continue.
But Bush cannot skip the caucuses. He can place in the middle of the pack, and as you indicated, do well in NH, and still be a credible force. But he cannot forgo it entirely, Walker is too well organized and invested there for him to do that, and Walker IS going to be the main competition.
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Exactly. And your statement is close to one I have fleshed out here before. He’ll appear but not enough to tax his resources . He’ll leave the red-meat theater of immigrant bashing and religious flagellation to Cruz and the other crazies and focus on New Hampshire.
Ahh! Here it is, copied over from Prime:
Will Bush launch his campaign with the argument that “Iowa doesn’t matter”?
Yes, in a way.
Life’s not fair. Bush will be able to give Iowa a trip or two and let the press paint his abandonment of Iowa as a strategic one. Abandoning the bible-thumping immigrant-bashing wingnuts that dominate in Iowa will allow Bush to pivot as a moderate into his real target of New Hampshire.
We should recognize that Santorum beat Romney in the 2012 Iowa Caucus and that Huckabee beat McCain in the 2008 Iowa Caucus.
Oddly enough, Romney had campaigned very heavily in Iowa in 2008. He actually came in second in Iowa, just ahead of McCain. In 2012 Romney seemed to feel that Iowa wasn’t his thing and he gave up on a state he could have won… I believe this helped prolong his ugly primary race and contributed to his loss in the general.
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Jebbya and the Bushes have no gag reflex, no integrity. Everything goes.
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Iowa couldn’t pay Bush enough to care. No really, they couldn’t.
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Iowa, will you just get over yourself?
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Jeb is like that guy who says “I’m working on my second million … I gave up on my first!”
Sounds like he expects to simply be anointed president just like his brother.
If he skips the straw poll he won’t get a nice butter sculpture.
You’ll see Jeb’s gag reflex when the vote comes in November, 2016.
This is just not right. Iowa Republicans have a right to bilk their Presidential candidates in this major fund raiser. If they don’t “pay to play” they simply are not qualified to be President.
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Look how well the grassroots did for Bachmann when she watered the hell out of them in 2012!
Still, she DID get dinner out of it
And Bachmann, a native Iowan, didn’t do well.
We went to the same school in Waterloo but she was 2 years ahead.
Ahh, how sad! Iowa is just learning how IRRELEVANT they are.
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Hell, if Iowa is still waiting to have their grassroots watered, they haven’t yet noticed that the GOP economic trickle down policies have been sprinkling on them for 30 years.
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Until Bush says those magic words – “I’m running for president” – he can raise money for the Right to Rise super PAC backing his candidacy himself.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/01/politics/jeb-super-pac-rule/
It’s absurd that Jeb Bush can announce he’s going to one event for candidates and not another, without be considered a candidate by the FEC.
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“Mmm, more fried Twinkies and butter cow for me.”
- Chris Christie
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