Discussion for article #241975
Is There Really Any Traction For An Independent Candidate In [YEAR]?
You can change the year to any one you like and the answer still is the same:
No!
Closest was Teddy Roosevelt, whose Bull Moose Party still got shellacked 41% - 27% by Woodrow Wilson (D) in 1912. And if you think that’s maybe kinda close “for an outsider,” remember that rough riding Teddy had already served 7 1/2 years as POTUS , 1901-1909l
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No. Next question?
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Enough “traction” for an independent candidate to win the White House? Very unlikely. Enough to create a potentially outcome-affecting spoiler effect? Sure, that seems quite possible. But I have no idea whether a potential Webb independent candidacy would draw more support away from the Republican nominee or away from the Democratic nominee.
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There is always traction … traction means friction and there is plenty of that within the GOP. Viability is a different question and one I hope Trump answers in 2016. I hope and pray Trump runs. He has been insulted and NOT in a classy way. The only answer to an affront like that is a third party candidacy.
I am sure he can attract a good portion of the crazy but what will that do to local races. The Crazies will not have a Trump branded down ballot outlet and will vote for the knuckle draggers … maybe even help THEM win.
If Trump runs as an independent, it is not because he wants to win, it is because he wants Hillary to win.
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There is no traction for any of the current mainstream Republican candidates, that is the issue at hand and why there is even talk of a third Party. Trump is about half way to an independent run anyhow because he’s neither Republican or Democrat, isn’t a politician per se and is all about himself. Webb is having an ego attack apparently and suffering from delusions of grandeur.
As Democrats, we are being treated to two first class, top notch candidates that are exciting for the possibilities that they bring as well as the idea of 8 more years of running the nation which will weaken the GOP even further.
Webb wouldn’t be filling a void that is seeking a savior as far as the Democratic Party is concerned.
Trump OTOH is the crazies dream come true, all 20% of them. Divide and fail Trump, divide and fail!
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Yes! Yes! YES!
You’re not answer the real question here, which is “Wouldn’t it be great if Trump ran as an independent since he will never get the Rethug nomination?”
KIlgore has an interesting data point, but is making, in my opinion, an absurd leap with it. Why would Trump, who leads in every state, run 3rd party, with all the expenses associated with that being borne entirely by him, to clear the way for an establishment candidate to win the nomination for the GOP?
This theory still comes down to this notion that “Trump can’t win the nomination” even though every indication is, he most definitely can.
The 3rd Party run is the White Whale of the media ever since 2000 with Nader’s run. It’s an idea that everyone loves to flirt with, but its practical value is just not there. Our system is not only not setup to support the idea of pluralities, its set up specifically to destroy third parties in their infancy. The House, the Senate, the Electoral College…are all based on winner take all, yes/no. And without viable support in Congress, a 3rd party Presidency is doomed to failure right from the beginning.
The closest to a 3rd party in this country is playing out right now in the House. And its not a battle for Independence, its a Civil War…the winner consuming the loser and taking control of the party apparatus. The Tea Party doesn’t want to split off, they want to take over the GOP, and the GOP doesn’t want the Tea Party to split off, they want to beat them into submission. Because neither is powerful enough to stand on their own in a system that is built on two party rule.
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It’d be great if he did go Indy, but why would he need to? It looks like he’s got the nomination all sewed up.
You think the Donnie would renege on his pledge to NOT run as an independent???
I read an article a couple of months ago (sorry forget by whom) that pooh-poohed the indy run idea. He would only have a reason to do it if he lost the Republican nomination, and would have to persuade himself a third-party run would be more viable than the one he just lost. Either that, or he runs for spite, to screw the Republicans. God knows he’s crazy but at this point, can anyone say for sure he’s that crazy?
I doubt it. But before we can even go down that path, there is that decision point of losing the republican nomination. I have yet to see anybody present a good story of how that happens. The best I have heard is his ground game may be lacking, and a significant number of his supporters have never voted before. Valid points, but neither can be addressed until Feb 1.
Me either. The people I read stopped saying it was impossible for him to win a long time ago, when he started surprising everyone. Barring some unprecedented degree of scandal—a revelation that he’s a vampire, say—he may very well be the guy. Interesting times we live in.
They are increasingly found in the ranks of Republican voters, but they have never internalized the economic views of GOP elites, particularly liberal immigration laws, multilateral trade agreements and “entitlement reforms” affecting Social Security and Medicare. And they are instinctive “wrong track” voters, particularly in difficult economic times, who have little use for politicians or the governmental institutions they run.
In other words, the largely provincial, casually racist white working folk commonly found in the formerly industrial northeast and midwest, the same people we used to call “Reagan democrats”. I know that seems like a flippant generalization, but I grew up surrounded by these voters in rural PA, and the prevalent political attitudes of the populace in these areas are pretty consistent.
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Either that, or he runs for spite, to screw the Republicans.
I can see him losing the nomination, especially once it gets past Iowa and New Hampshire, and I can easily see him running independent purely out of spite.
Well, I’ll only say I think there are things that militate against it. I sure won’t say I’m sure one way or the other! After all those times we said “anything’s possible,” it turns out anything was a lot more possible than we ever knew.
He can mock Hillary with at least some effectiveness also.
TPM:
Is There Really Any Traction For An Independent Candidate In 2016?
Depends on what you mean by Traction.
No one could win the general as an independent in 2016.
On the other hand, it appears that Trump could possibly pull 5%-10% of the general election vote, most of it from Republicans and other Conservatives - though that would just give the GOP a post-facto excuse for losing a race they’re gonna lose anyway.
So, if by traction you mean >5% of the vote, then yes, Trump could get traction. But if by traction you mean enough of the vote to change the outcome of the race, then no, not really.
Webb. on the other hand, has no chance of getting any traction: Republicans already view Webb as a turncoat for becoming a Democrat; Democrats would view Webb as a traitor for opposing the party in the Presidential; and non-affiliated voters will say Who? since, outside of the party apparatus, he won’t be able to raise enough money to significantly increase voter recognition of his name.
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