Which of Trump’s golf courses will become one big pond?
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It is real tough to do a statistical analysis and come away with strong conclusions on the progression of hurricane intensities over the past 50-60 years. The US has been hit by some real doozies in the past, Camille, Labor Day, Long Island Express, etc…
Here is the Accumulated Cyclonic Energy for the North Atlantic:
and the number of named storms and majors
What is happening is that there is evidence of more rapid intensification under ideal conditions, i.e. “bombing out” but this may also be a function of the tremendous progress made in monitoring and measuring tropical cyclones…
One final plot, from Wiki
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They are now predicting a 20+ ft storm surge…
FEMA is going to need a lot of paper towels…
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All of them will get massive federal flood relief funding, even if they only get a few drops of rain.
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Here in coastal Virginia this may be too close for comfort. Grew up with hurricanes but have lived out west most of my life until now. Don’t know how freaked out I should be but am getting advice from a friend that spent years in Houston going through several hurricanes. Need be ready to head north, maybe I’ll ask if the White House is available for refugees. Not!
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The GOP has started to admit that the globe is warming, but it is natural (i.e. god’s will). Apparently, god is so pissed about the gays that he’s going to launch hurricane after hurricane against the Atlantic coast until he gets all the way to San Francisco. Whatever, dude.
Scholars say (i"m making this up, so any truth is coincidental) that human societies create gods that reflect what those societies understand and value. That may explain why the god of US evangelicals is a destructive moron who doesn’t care what happens along the way as long as, in the end, he makes some hippies cry.
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Aaaand, just after I minimized any risk because I’m four hours from the coast, they upgraded the chance we’ll be getting 39+ mph wind here to 60-70%. All the grid repair n the state capacity will be staged down east. All of which means I’d better make sure I’ve got plenty of propane for the grill and restock the pantry after all.
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Best of luck to you and your community.
I’m sure you are getting all the good advice you need, but I hope it has included advice to prepare for the case where you don’t have to bug out, but you lose your power for a few days or more.
The general advice gov’t gives us in CA is to prepare for 72 hours of self-sufficiency. That can greatly reduce the load on rescue/recovery efforts in the first few days.
Edited to add: looks like @ncsteve (see above) knows the drill.
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Just checked the local wind forecast. I will be shopping like I’m on the Outer Banks tonight, because all that rain and 40 mph wind means we’re losing some power lines like the rest of the state.
Bleh. Canned food. I hate canned food.
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NC girl here. All I hear about is Hugo- which was before I became a southerner. Exact week last year every store in Charlotte was sold out of water, including the Costcos. We also had fuel shortages. Not a drop of rain that I recall came down.
For Florence, I have not prepared yet, but the more I hear about it the more I wonder if I need to. I’m in the piedmont.
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*swamp?
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Lived in the Pacific NW and it was not uncommon to loose power for a few days in winter with storms. However, that was a whole different ballgame compared to a hurricane with 130 mph winds.
Thanks for your thoughts.
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Be glad you won’t be on the Outer Banks. Haven’t been a couple of years but something like this will be devastating.
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It’s also difficult to disentangle storm intensity (the destructive power of a storm) from its severity (how much damage it actually did). Storm severity is strongly impacted by human land use decisions- we have spent the last several decades building more, and more expensive, homes along our coasts, so hurricane damage has risen dramatically. As you’ve discussed, we now have the data to show that some of that increase is due to changes in intensity , but it took a while to be able to say with confidence that we were seeing impacts of global warming on hurricane intensity, even though it’s a pretty obvious prediction.
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Are you ready for 20 inches of rain? Extended power outages?
Forecast is looking like the storm will stall on shore. Be prepared!
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Florence upgraded from a Cat 3 to a Cat 4 VERY fast… Take it from this FL girl, be prepared, folks. Three storms brewing in the Atlantic, two in the Pacific and a new one forming out in the Gulf. This is going to be one hell of a storm season! Stay safe, everybody!!
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The most recent discussion has this making landfall at 140 + …
Monster of a monster ---- Please get out of the way my friends …
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/102055.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
here is an interactive satellite —
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They’re now calling for 18 inches of rain in large parts of the coastal plain Down East, up to and past Raleigh.
It doesn’t drain very well down there.
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I moved here in the 80’s, a bit before Hugo hit. North Carolinians are the world’s most hilariously hysterical weather alarmists. Light rain after a dry spell causes their brains to turn to shit on the Interstate. They get snow almost every year yet everytime it comes, it’s like the first time any of them have ever seen it in their lives. The memory of Hugo is kind of like the lingering whisper of the Black Death behind “Gesundheit” and “Ring Around the Rosies” to meteorologically alarmist Tarheels.
The sight of people prepping for a hurricane in the Piedmont is usually ridiculous and probably is this time…except…
Last I checked, they’re saying we’ve got a 60-70% chance of winds exceeding 39mph …
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152311.shtml?tswind120#contents
And, if nothing changes, most of the Piedmont is predicted to get 2-6 inches of rain. If that changes a little bit, though–and this is where the specter of Hugo looms largest in the Tarheel imagination–that could easily turn into ten to twelve.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152311.shtml?rainqpf#contents
And most of the linemen and their equipment are rolling out of here and staging into the east. This all adds up, by my SWAG, to a 50-50 chance of 1-3 days without power. And that’s why you need at least three days worth of food that doesn’t require you to open the fridge, that you can eat without prep or can prepare on a grill if you have one an if its not raining like a motherfucker. A few gallons of spring water wouldn’t be a bad thing, assuming there’s any left in any store in the whole damn state. Oh, and light sources–hurricane lamps, candles, battery operated lanterns.
Oh, and if you live near a river, a creek or a meaningful pond or lake and have pets, you need a bug-out plan for you and, especially, them. If you’re pet-free, you can wing it if we have flooding, but getting the pets out alive takes prep. Cages, crates, pads/litter box food and water ready to go.
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Meanwhile, back in Dotard City…
EPA begins rollback of Obama-era methane rules
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