About 70% believe that GOP/Trump own Trumpcare. Almost 60% believe the NFL Players are protesting b/c of police brutality. It seems like a solid majority of Congress wants to keep the Iran deal in place. In addition, people are now associating Weinstein with Trump instead of Weinstein with Dems. He just got served a subpoena (actually a while ago) that will re-open all of the stuff that should’ve buried him in '16. Trump’s game isn’t working.
However, in my view, the GOP is completely politically paralyzed and with only 1 federal election coming in AL-Sen (which frankly the GOP is heavily favored to win), there are no accountability moments between now and the looming budget crisis.
I do believe there’s a strong chance that Trump causes a protracted government shutdown that exceeds the '94 shutdown. With PR/USVI relief (and probably a lot more needed to be done in TX/FL), CSR payments, CHIP, Iran Nuclear deal, his ‘stupid fucking wall’, tax cuts.
I don’t think the GOP is capable of getting consensus within their caucus. I think McConnell and Ryan are traitors who believe that the only way for them to stay in power is to never do a deal with Democrats except when they have the permission of the Koch Bros. I think Trump is so dumb, angry and his narcissistic void is so wide that he wants to blow something up just to watch it burn. The thing that really burns dumb people with delusions of grandeur is when everyone else in the room knows they’re dumb. Morongate exemplifies this in spades.
The other wildcard out there is North Korea. I know of no major military asset movements which would suggest that a major Iraq style war is on the horizon. I don’t believe that we have the ability to take out the regime and occupy NK by ourselves.
However, I could see Trump do this in stages. I could envision him beginning with an air bombardment campaign to demonstrate air superiority, expose a hollowness in NK’s air defense, and just bait Kim into hitting back to provoke a larger war. This would make for great PR for him, as he would dominate the TV screens as the CiC. Sure more than half would say he was crazy, but he’d control the stage.
Then there would be a month of diplomatic efforts, followed by further escalations. Trump could keep this in the news for months if he’s convinced that Kim doesn’t want war.
The risk here, obviously, is that Kim doesn’t give a shit and if his country is attacked, he will follow through on what has been drilled into his head since he was born and hit back, with SK taking the brunt. Thousands would die. These scenarios are now more probable than they were several months ago thanks to the political paralysis of the GOP.