I keep seeing that in at least 40 states, the extra cost for the CSRs is being distributed amongst silver plans alone. Since subsidies are calculated based on the cost of the 2nd least expensive silver plan, this means that subsidies for people at or below 400% FPL will actually get increased subsidies, some so much that they can get gold plans for less than today’s silver plans, or bronze plans for near free. The numbers work out that the Feds actually pay significantly higher total subsidies.
The key point to understand is that insurers have two pipes into the treasury for subsidies (CSRs and normal subsidies based on silver plan prices), and Trump’s moronic plan just means that they have to suck more money out of the remaining pipe. The way the numbers work out, cutting CSRs increases the total allowed subsidy amounts, which would normally be a Democratic priority. But the Dems can attack the Republicans for heartlessly trying to screw families making < $98,000, while actually getting the policy win in “secret.”
Unsubsidized people have to stay away from silver plans, since they don’t get the benefit of the remaining subsidies, but they can still sign up for bronze, gold or platinum plans.
You can read the details on David Anderson’s posts at ballon juice, but that’s my understanding.