Discussion for article #228171
Those who don’t keep abreast of the geopolitics and history of East Asia might not fully appreciate how big these protests are, and the repercussions they could potentially have. The movement itself is almost certainly not going to get what it wants (Beijing won’t budge on this). But it’s serving as a flashpoint for the politicization of the Hong Kong citizenry – people who conventionally are very apolitical. The optics of the tear gassing are terrible, so many people who would otherwise not support the Occupy Central movement are going to come out in the coming days to join the student protestors. If the state (which is ultimately backed up by the PRC and the PLA) ratchets up its response, and especially if a few people are killed, then the situation could devolve into serious chaos, e.g. the stock market here shutting down, and the imposition of martial law
Meanwhile, Taiwan is watching closely as ever, as Hong Kong’s fate bears upon its own. The general sentiment in TW is pro-unification with the PRC; people there feel this would be good for the economy, and that the “one country, two systems” agreement that HK has with the PRC could also work in TW’s case. But with Beijing playing an increasingly heavy hand, TW people–esp. the youth–could very well swing against unification.
In China proper (where I currently reside), it’s doubtful that this event will have much major effect, but it’s too early to say. Certain China-watchers in the west are overly optimistic about the possibility of democratic movements. There may be some popular sympathy amongst youth for HK, and there’s discontent over the government’s shutdown of Instagram after it got flooded with images of police brutality, but HK politics is too distant from the everyday realities of mainland life to spark a mass movement here. At the least, these events offer people here one more example of the realpolitik stance of the PRC, which is to protect the Chinese Communist Party’s interests at all costs and to absolutely disregard any discussion of increased autonomy for places like Tibet, Xinjiang, and HK. But the history of postcolonialism elsewhere teaches us that these places will not be simply assimilated, no matter how much money or how many troops are sent in.
Exciting times.
3 Likes
[https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher/status/516394848493244416][1]
Hong Kong’s protesters are using the “hands up, don’t shoot” gesture from Ferguson http://bit.ly/10b4ubD pic.twitter.com/qjGUx2gCdD