Correlation vs. causation. When I was a lot younger, watching Reagan’s decline in real time, my impression was that his being shot and critically wounded led, perhaps from anoxia, to a cognitive decline. Now it seems more likely that the decline was associated with his Alzheimer’s Disease, but the two aren’t mutually exclusive. I find it interesting how quick Reagan’s defenders have been to deny that Reagan had even the slightest cognitive slip while in the White House, as I recall a lot of examples that are consistent with the onset of dementia, such as confusing the plot of a film he was once in with a historical event.
Moving back to Rove and Clinton, I think Ross Douthat’s column, There is No Alternative to Clinton, (which doesn’t actually say much) reflects the Republican conventional wisdom,
As Ramesh Ponnuru writes in the latest issue of National Review, while “the Democrats of the 1980s had to respond to a country that was largely happy with Republican governance and to specific conservative policy successes,” today’s electorate “is persistently unhappy” with the direction of the country, and “liberal policy successes are too hard to detect to be the basis for concessions” by the right. And liberalism’s current forward-looking agenda, such as it is — immigration reform, climate-change regulations, some jaw-jaw about inequality — doesn’t really align with those unhappy voters’ immediate priorities. Continue reading the main story Continue reading the main story Advertisement
Which means that Obama’s coalition, while real enough, may not be durable — and that a Republican comeback at the presidential level might be more likely than many Democrats currently assume.
Especially since the liberal coalition’s extraordinary diversity also offers many potential lines of fracture. To invoke an example from this year’s grim centennial, the post-Obama Democratic Party could well be the Austro-Hungarian empire of presidential majorities: a sprawling, ramshackle and heterogeneous arrangement, one major crisis away from dissolution.
But this is where Hillary Clinton comes in. If her party is Austria-Hungary, she might be its Franz Josef — the beloved emperor whose imperial persona (“coffered up,” the novelist Joseph Roth wrote, “in an icy and everlasting old age, like armour made of an awe-inspiring crystal”), as much as any specific political strategy, helped keep dissolution from the empire’s door.
I don’t agree that Clinton has that special of a role within the Democratic Party, as opposed to having a particularly special status as presumed frontrunner and presumed nominee that seems likely to result in a small field of candidates; but if you do vest her with being the magical glue that will keep the Democratic coalition together it makes sense to start trying to tear her down – and to do so early.
I should also note that there’s nothing surprising about a party that carries a majority in a national election to be “sprawling, ramshackle and heterogeneous”, as that’s one of the consequences of having a two party system. You put together the coalition you need to win. The Republicans had a fantasy not so many years ago about establishing a permanent Republican majority, but as it turned out their majority was sprawling, ramshackle and heteregeneous and as they turned toward the Tea Party in the pursuit of short-term victories they lost moderate votes. Holding that winning coalition together can be very hard work. Does Douthat truly believe, in the face of history, that the Republican Party is united behind a clear, coherent political philosophy?