Discussion for article #226131
Makes me wonder - if this is the case, will SC be the start of the GOP season? If the saner folks abandon Iowa, and I would expect lower effort in NH with Paul running. He should be pretty strong there assuming he can draw on daddy and Libertarian support.
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It’s a very risky proposition to skip Iowa. Not because of the actual caucus results so much, but because the Iowa primary is THE only focus of campaign coverage for about 3 months. Very few candidates can afford to surrender that type of coverage to all their competitors for the first three months of the election cycle.
That being said, Iowa milks it for every penny, every four years. The straw poll, for example, is nothing but a transference of wealth to the state GOP, where candidates can and do, literally buy the votes.
NH is always an oddball with regards to primary results. Paul could do well there (and probably will have to), assuming his libertarian cred isn’t tarnished by then…and in my opinion, that’s a pretty big if. Paul lacks any actual convictions and is now entering into what is for him, new territory. He has to pander to all sorts of people, many of which have conflicting views. And not to suggest that Romney’s etch a sketch strategy was successful, but by comparison, Romney looks like a genius with the etch a sketch compared to Paul.
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“Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has also been touring the state this week.”
…really fast. And by foot.
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100 likes, especially for that last sentence. Paul’s behavior and comments in the past few days are really surprising in terms of their political ineptness and, of course, lack of consistent principles.
Especially when someone says “immigration” anywhere near!
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I know its a risk, but with the cost today, is it really worth spending that kind of money so you can appear the equal of Bachmann/Perry/Gingrich/Paul? It seems all you’re getting for your money is a cheapening of your brand, and if you have anything serious to say, it gets lost in the crazy babble that will be run 100x for each “serious” clip of your own.
The folks from the business wing of the party usually have some concept of ROI, and looking at the nutfest states, is it worth the investment? Let them flame out and lose all their cash in the nickel-slot states, and hoard yours until it matters.
It seems like you could make a case to let crazy folks hold their circular firing squads, then step into the wreckage in states with larger, more diverse populations that will disapate (slightly) the crazies.
…and where is She-Who-Eats-Corndogs-on-a-Stick-with-great-Relish?
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Iowa is also sort of the first test in the fundraising fitness marathon. Pawlenty and Bachmann are two recent examples of people who failed to get over that wall; they both blew their money on Iowa and had nothing left to continue. (Pawlenty went belly up before the caucus was even held, Bachmann added a dismal placing to her loss of money).
As far as the donors are concerned, that isn’t exactly how it works. Donors belly up big money at various points in the campaign. But once the money is given, its up to the campaign how and when it gets spent. If the donor seriously disagrees with how the money is being spent, that’s probably going to be the last you will see of their wallets. If they agree, and more importantly, if they view your chances of success as still fair, they may belly up with more money.
As far as the ROI, there is an interesting story concerning a Senator from Montana back in the 1800s, when Senators were still appointed and not elected. It was pretty common practice to pave the way to getting nominated by donating large sums to people like the governors that make the selection. This particular senator paid something like $10,000 to get the seat (which was A LOT of money back then). When he arrived in D.C., to his surprise he was treated like a pariah. It wasn’t that he was so open about how he got the seat…
…it was that they were all pissed because it just pushed up the price for all of their seats going forward.
The point here is that, while it may not be a good ROI, its still the only game in town to get regulations written the way you want.
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My guess? Investigating extradition laws with Swizterland and wondering if she can reclaim that citizenship she denounced a few years ago.