Discussion: Emerson Poll: Sanders Surges Past Clinton In Wisconsin

Barney Frank with whom I have always been impressed is not impressed by Bernie.

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May the woman or man with the most votes win.

Could we just leave it at that?

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Bernie bots will not leave it at that.

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I’ve thought for a long time now that Wisconsin might go for Bernie. I’m hoping Hillary gets as close as possible to 50%. At this point, it’s the delegates and if she can get more than 45% of the delegates, we’re still on track.

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I’m sure a good dose of it is Machiavellian as people have said, so don’t start, but also, I’ve seen compilations of republicans talking about how Bernie is honest and straightforward and so on. A lot of republicans support him in Vermont, small farmers et al. So a big part of it is Clinton just makes them crazy and unites them in their hatred for misogynist or historical reasons, indeed it’s the only thing that unites them now, whereas Bernie’s good character communicates even to them so they have more trouble getting energy behind that. To be sure, they’ve got plenty to use in case he does get the nomination, e.g. old fashioned anti-communist paranoia.

Do we really want a candidate who uniquely unites the bad guys though? Seems foolish to make it so easy for them. I guess that energy too can be used in some way by the right PR firms, and Clinton can certainly afford those, as can the shadowy forces backing her.

Cute, except that the HRC supporters understand this thing called math, so there’s really no reason to get upset. Plus, WI is a perfectly Sanders state. It’s nearly 90% white, has several colleges, and an open primary. That’s his wheelhouse.

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So according to this Emerson poll, it looks like a big part of what’s going on in Wisconsin is that the age gap is yuuuuuge, while Hillary’s lead among women appears to have shrunk (in this poll) to just 3 points.

Sanders leads Clinton 68% to 22% in the 18-34 age group and 57% to 38% among
voters 35-54. Clinton bounces back with voters 55-74 by 11 points (54% to 43%) and
maintains her strongest edge with voters over 75, 72% to 21%.

Sanders has extended his lead amongst men from 51% to 43% in ECPS previous poll
to 59% to 36%, while cutting into the women’s vote for Clinton, now trailing by only 3
points 48% to 45%. Sander’s has solidified his support across the state losing only in
the fourth congressional district.

And similar to some other states, Hillary leads narrowly among registered Democrats, Bernie wins by a wide margin among independents.

And of course, despite the “Sanders Surges Past Clinton” headline, and the big swing in this particular poll over the last two weeks (which could indicate big movement, or could also just indicate inaccuracy), the RCP polling average right now has Bernie with a lead of 2.6%. And right after this Emerson poll came out, ARG came out with their numbers, which put Hillary ahead by 1% in Wisconsin.

So to me, it seems like what the polling as a whole is suggesting is that it’s a very close race in Wisconsin.

Edited to add: And perhaps that’s because most of the Democratic primary voters like both of them:

Both Sanders and Clinton hold very high favorable rating among likely Democrat voters with Sanders at 83% and Clinton at 70%.

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From what I understand it’s an open primary. They are really silly. I really want democrats to pick their own standard bearer. We will have to endure another week of Sen. Sanders preening. Too bad. He cannot win the general election. Trump supporters turn around and they become Bernie people. Trump’s white people hate minorities and union members. They are poorly educated and worry that they will become irrelevant in the next generation. Sen. Sanders’ white folks love minorities from afar, favor unions even though they have never needed to join one and want the government to spend on programs without actually paying the taxes needed to fund them. What a choice!

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As is typical for even mild Democratic primary races, outlandish attacks are par for the course from each side, by a minority of supporters. So I take attacks from Hillary supporters with a grain of salt, as well as attacks by Sanders supporters. If you think this is one-sided, perhaps you are filtering too much.

Anyway, it’s not a flaw in the system, but a feature going back centuries. This year’s campaign (on the Democratic side) is fairly tame. The Clinton-Obama contest was pretty ugly.

Now, the GOP contest, on the other hand, is enough to make a sailor blush.

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“Surges past”?

PPP, Marquette and others have already shown that Sanders is ahead in Wisconsin. Shrug.

Also, the not so well attended Sanders rallies in Madison and Green Bay are interesting, but probably not meaningful.

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Forget where I saw it but considering he’s outspending Clinton there 6:1 I would hope he’s surging in the polls.

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I suspect it’s going to be close, and a Sanders win.

It will be interesting to see which ballots the independents are taking, tomorrow.

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I know that you will not hear any criticism of Sanders on Daily Kos but if one of you zombies can tell me why you feel the need for a socialist revolution? A revolution occurs when a country’s citizens are unhappy with the leadership or the direction of the country or its infrastructure. Are you zombies aware that the American people give Obama the highest presidential fovorable numbers in decades. And the American people are as happy with this country as they have been in decades.

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Good grief.

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To Simon Pure:

My wife does our taxes. We could release our returns for the past six years within one hour.

Senator Sanders, release your tax returns! Now!

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You mean democratic voters, of course. Or Democrats who vote.

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Can you explain to the voters why when Obama is more popular than any american president in decades, and the position of this country is in the best shape the last 8 years as any period in modern history. Why would you Berniebots feel that it is time for an overthrow of the status quo. Are we ready for a socialist way of life when this country is so well now? Also, explain to me just how this socialist program will succeed with a Republican congress who hates socialism more than anything else

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Thank God you voted for Bernie, with your record as a reverse indicator, Hillary wins for sure.

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You hit the nail on the head!!! The last person that the R want to run against is Clinton. Why do you think they keep bringing up allthat BS about Bengazi and the email BS. Blah Blah Blah They will hammer Sanders and his Socialism all over the place. He will get mercilessly hammered. Period End!!!

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Doesn’t make sense to me either, which is why I always question the “professor’s” motives.

If you’re an independent and think the establishment has done you wrong, well, you tend to get pissed off about those awful things that happen elsewhere on this planet.

Not saying he does, of course.

I’m not saying America first, by any means. But I am going to vote for the person who has a better chance of continuing what Obama put into place, after eight horrific years of Bush.

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