Ok…time for a reality check on the jungle primary. CA is not an exclusive vote by mail state. About 50%-60% is VBM; the remaining 40%-50% is in-person voting. The in-person vote will be much more Democratic because many more minorities and younger voters participate in e-day voting than EV.
The independent site that everyone is using to check the returned/mailed ballots hasn’t updated in 2 days. So whatever data you see on that site is substantially off from the actual total. Those totals have Dems racking up a 250k margin statewide over GOP even in demographics that are unfriendly to Dems through 6/1. On e-day that margin is going to expand significantly. Dems might end up with a 50% vote share of the electorate when all is said and done (currently at 45%). That’s why I’m still giving Antonio Villaraigosa a shot at finishing #2 in the Governor’s race despite some not so great polling.
As for the districts, in CA-49, the Dem turnout through Friday was very strong. Dems are turning out at a 2% higher clip than the GOP with Indies in the district leaning Dem. The last few polls show that only 1 GOPer is truly competitive (Diane Harkey) with 3 competitive Dems in the top 4. The chances of Dems getting locked out there have dropped. The chances that the Dems actually lock out the GOP are growing (not 50% mind you, but it’s a non-trivial possibility).
It looks as though Mike Levin (my preferred candidate) is making a breakthrough over the last 4 days. Sara Jacobs and Doug Applegate have run strong races. Paul Kerr, the billionaire saboteur, is in mid-single digits and I expect him to drop below 5%. I think the Dems are safe there. It’s definitely possible (maybe 15% chance?) that Levin/Applegate, Levin/Jacobs, or Applegate/Jacobs could make it through to the general election.
In CA 48, the last poll there over the weekend (from Harley Rouda’s campaign) showed Rohrabacher at 30%, Rouda at 25%, Keirstad at 20% and Scott Baugh at 15%. I’ve heard no other campaign disputing those results or the pecking order. If that’s true then Nancy Pelosi’s decision to beat the crap out of Scott Baugh is working. In CA-48, we have an outside chance that the GOP gets locked out as I could see a scenario where Rohrabacher drops to 22%, Baugh gets to 20%, Rouda gets to 28% and Keirstad ends up at 23%. Mind you that’s an odd and unlikely scenario but it’s as plausible (and I’d say slightly more so) than the GOP locking us out.
In CA-39, people are fretting that our turnout hasn’t been great thus far. While that’s true, that’s only 4000 votes, and not counting the Indies (which have been leaning Dem across the country throughout the election cycle). That gap can be closed on Election Day. In addition, the GOP isn’t driving enough numbers to knock out the Dems. The last poll we know about (a few weeks ago) had Gil Cisneros as the #1. Now, Sam Jammal and the other candidates have trashed Cisneros over several weeks and it has been maddening to see. Nonetheless, my sense is that Cisneros’ message has been geared to driving up base Dem and latino turnout and his ads, the support from prominent Dems outside the district and his activity level suggest that he has convinced the base that he is the best choice for Team Blue.