Be still my beating heart.
Tenney is toast, so itās 40 minimum. Sweet!
And yet people insist Pelosi needs to go. Fucking clowns
All that winning Donnie, must make you proud. Have any idea how you didnāt win so many house seats? People donāt like corrupt non-stop liars.
This math seems to suggest weāll definitely hold the House and have a real shot at picking up the Senate next cycle.
Thirty-nine net seats as of the McAdams call? NYT has it at D +38 with three races uncalled (GA-4, NY-22 & NY-27āone of which will almost certainly go blue) and after subtracting out the 3 GOP pickups in MN & PA from the total of 41 R->D flips: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
I realize there is also CA-21, which NYT hasnāt reclassified as uncalledābut thatās an R incumbent and wonāt count against the Dem net gain even if you call it an R win.
So what am I missing here? Whereās the 39th pickup?
I see the anti-Pelosi movement rather as a desire for uncompromising leadership and real vigor in opposing republicans. The idea of a comfortable DC insider at the helm is not inspiring in all corners.
Iām not discounting experience, but rather pointing out the perceived general corrupting influence of the Washington environment.
Just one view.
Iām not a big fan of the song āBlue Christmasā, but Iāll gladly sing it this year. Definitely donāt want to rush through the holiday season, but canāt wait for mid-January.
Thatās how I see it too. I think weāre talking a net 39 seat wave. Need more than just the NY lead race to reach 40.
TJ Cox has a very good chance to win CA-21 and get the Dems up to a 40 seat gain.
All that is left to do is a fuck-ton of hard work and organization.
For all that I follow national politics, the Democratic lock on state government in California has been my excuse to ignore what is happening at that level. The midterm ballot reminded me that Iām actually represented by a GOPer in the state assembly. Iām going to spend some time learning about his positions and votes so Iām ready to help escort him out of office in 2020.
Iāll bet that Iām not the only TPM reader who could do more to help Dem candidates for state legislatures. The effort will be especially important in states where thereās a chance of taking post-Census redistricting out of the hands of Republicans.
And a happy Thanksgiving to all. Let us give thanks.
Damn a little power feels good.
Looking at the NYT site, it looks like with Cox we would have 41 pickups but we lost 2 seats in MN so the net should be 39.
The next CA-21 update (Fresno) is scheduled for 3 PST today. It should give a strong indicator of the outcome. (The Nov. 26 update will be from Kern.) My expectation at the current pace is ~ +400 D total when all is in. If Fresno comes in with either more or less than its expected ~8% D margin, that will be adjusted.
And for those who have trouble following the net count, that would be 40.
NY-22 is done, D. GA-07 gives a very remote chance for 41.
CA-21 (and 40 net) would be awesome however it happensā¦but itās not baked into this articleās analysis. I was hoping NYT and I had missed something obvious!
Bourdeaux is only down 400 or so in GA-4, but I still donāt see a lot of hope there. Also, Bruce Poliquinās sore-loser challenge to ranked choice voting in ME-2 is still going forward. Iād like to think itās frivolous, but itās proceeding before a federal district judge who is a LePage & Trump nominee. The previous court victories for the pro-RCV initiative have come via Dem-appointed judges.
I know what Iām thankful for this yearā¦
Thatās Jan 3, not mid Jan.
Let the fun begin.
Might wannaā slow your roll there, amigo:
Even a 41 seat pick-up leaves the Dās with 236 āblue seatsā, which is only a margin of 18 before theyād be in the minority once again.
Holding the House in 2020 will require solid planning and politicking from January '19 'til the early voting begins.
(plus a little more luck wouldnāt hurt.)