I believe total delegate count he came out about 7 delegates over her on the night in Michigan. But the Mississippi domination was expected. I think if she shut him out of the 15 percent minimum to get any delegates at all it might have been a bigger story. So it’s a victory for him for beating expectations even if the math is slim. He’ll need a much larger margin in future primaries to have any shot. But outperforming 23 points that what polls had predicted is what makes it a story.
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If you agree that a poll that was that wildly off is even close to meaningful. The word is that Hillary’s internals weren’t agreeing with that at all.
Mississippi was expected because Hillary dominates the black vote and Bernie just doesn’t even come close to touching anything considered as victory when the black vote is involved. He lost Flint big as an example, even though he squeaked by in the state.
Latinos in Nevada were the same thing.
I’m giving him props for winning but the polling has real issues to be off this far and the Dems are far from an all white Party.
Bernie has to win a lot bigger and win minorities and people of color as well or slim unexpected margins of victory are all for show and moot.
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Bernie is a visionary leader. He only lacks the charisma of a John Kennedy, Martin Luther King or Barrack Obama. Hillary is a follower, at least one step behind and always waiting for the tide of public opinion to lead her in a certain direction. She is always playing it safe. We all want what Bernie is expounding. We just need to get behind him and give him the mandate to bring his ideas into reality. I stand with Bernie!
Tangential to the discussion here…
If, after Hillary gets the Nomination, Bernie does NOT go all the way in supporting her, he will be remembered by historians (those who care about the Republic).
And it won’t be pleasant.
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Bernie is not that kind of person. I’d say that is obvious. He is genuine, and authentic. If he is not the candidate he will support Hillary 100%, just as I will. I would also encourage everyone to do the same. Most people on this site is more or less a political junkie and we are very involved. The biggest problem I feel is that most people are not involved. I want to challenge all that read this to talk to everyone you can. Make it a priority! Don’t let the rhetoric of the conservatives around where you work or with your family and friends stand. Challenge them. Speak to a future that is spoken of by the democratic candidates. Join me in changing the world one person at a time!
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I don’t remember ever talking about her inevitability, but even if I had, you should probably know that I can talk about whatever the fuck I want; just so we’re clear on that. The lead in the polls was reported by others. I talked to people in her campaign and they knew it was closer to 50/50. But if we are talking about leads, maybe we can ask Clinton how she continually holds onto her nearly 80% lead with African Americans and why black people can’t seem to stand Bernie Sanders.
Seriously? You are putting the guy on a pretty high pedestal don’t you think. He’s been in politics most of his life and has done many good things but a visionary on level with the greats of all time is a stretch. For one thing, the charisma matters and matters big in politics. He has to sell himself as well as his ideas ‘to the majority’ or he’s just a cult of personality with big unrealistic ideas.
Socialism isn’t all that visionary in and of itself, it just would be an unbelievable change for the USA. Not to mention that it isn’t going to be, ever.
Vision is one thing, turning that vision into reality is a whole other beast.
And your framing of Hillary is pretty harsh, I’m not with you on that either. I stand with Hillary and the Democratic Party. (the yoke and the egg)
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But she didn’t! That “20-point lead” was always and ever a fiction created by incompetent pollsters. The Clinton campaign’s own internals showed it as exactly what it was: a tossup. That whole “upset” shtick is 117% a media creation based on their own errors.
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Take it over to Daily Kos, OK?
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Most voters are low information, period. Hillary Clinton is the known. Bernie has worked hard for the people all his life. Check out youtube for his involvement in the civil rights movement. He has never wanted for the lime light. It is only the pressing need of our country and world that he is coming to the forefront. I feel that same need, which is why I have decided to start writing on sites like this. Hillary to me is too status quo. We are in more dire circumstances now. We are in need of a leader who can challenge that and us to make the difference in the world we want to see. Will Hillary support Bernie if he is the nominee. Did Hillary or Bill lead any charge for true change. Please share with me an example. This is not a challenge to you, its that I would truly like to know.
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All it shows is you have no clue what the 538 folks are doing.
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But that’s part of why Bernie won, because instead of getting dominated by 60 points in the African American vote as is typical in the southern states, the breakdown was 65-30. The AA community in non-southern states appear to be more receptive to his message. The black vote is not monolithic.
Nor is anything clear cut about the Latino vote in Nevada. An initial exit poll said he won by 8%, later questions by the NY Times threw that into question. It’s hardly a resolved issue since there weren’t official tallies, but the bottom line is that this was a state she won the Latino vote by over 30 points in '08. Even if Sanders did lose the Latino vote share in Nevada that gap wasn’t huge. It wasn’t anywhere close to her victory with Latinos in '08.
Sanders doesn’t have to win minorities outright to be competitive in future states, he just has to capture a larger percentage of their vote share and not be so completely dominated like he was with African Americans in the South. That’s exactly what happened here. Also the African American districts, Detroit and Wayne county, 25 and 31 percent respectively, didn’t come close to the state turnout of 40%. High turnout favors Sanders. With the delegate count being what it is, it’s still a narrow path to victory and he’ll have to improve his margins considerably in the proportional delegate states. But this demonstrates he can be competitive enough among minority votes to secure victory in future states.
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He has a chance and always has but that’s a lot of ifs. High turnout was supposed to be what he was bringing, really high in fact but he isn’t.
Speaking of not mono-lithic, well neither are the whites that are majority female I believe, think about that one and Sanders off putting style at times.
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Sure, my point is that saying Clinton dominates the AA vote when the AA vote share can be subject to 30 point swings depending on the region and state in question seems a little misplaced.
As far as females finding Sanders style off putting, since I’m not a woman I won’t touch that one. But I will point out you’re making far too large of a generalization. Sanders style doesn’t appear off putting at all to millennial women who support Sanders in far greater numbers. Among them it’s actually been the opposite when there was significant backlash against Hillary’s surrogate Gloria Steinem suggesting that women are obligated to vote for Hillary simply because of gender.
They both have their constituencies. Hillary has some huge ones and by huge numbers.
If Bernie has these so called millenials, then he’d best energize them to vote, because they sure don’t seem to be racking up the gross numbers in totality.
We all want them energized, we need that desperately, I hope he brings it.
So now, even debate questions are horse race/narrative based…
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He’s doing what he can. Part of the problem is the DNC’s pivot this year de-emphasizing new voter registration drives in spite of being a staple of Democratic party success for decades, presumably to tilt the field in favor of one candidate. I find it a poor strategy. Not only is the spirit pretty un-democratic but it loses sight of the greater goal in November. I just hope it doesn’t come back to haunt us. But he was able to coordinate a voter registration drive near a college town in Michigan to register more young people to vote. He does what he can without DNC assistance.
Not sure why you’re complaining about turnout when Michigan had an historic turnout. The states he does well have had far higher turnouts compared to the states she’s won. Higher turnout favors him because those numbers are inflated by the new voters and independents he draws at a far higher rate than she does.
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The answer is easy. She came in second. Now move on to issues that matter to real people in the real world.
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If you look back to 2008 you will have your answer…just substitute “Barack” for “Bernie”.