He CANNOT be pardoned for conviction on STATE CHARGES which the AG of NY is preparing. He will defer to the Feds for first prosecution, but when he gets his chance he WILL indict Manafort and Gates.
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While Trump could theoretically pardon Manafort on these charges, doing so
would be enormously damaging to Trumpâs political position. It would be totally
obvious to everyone )at least everyone in DC) that Trump was giving an unjustified
pardon to keep Manafort silent about criminal activity on the Trump campaign.
The gist of these charges is that Manafort was working for Putin-related foreign
clients without registering under FARA, and then laundering tens of millions of
dollars through a complicated system of foreign shell companies to avoid paying
US tax. What possible justification could there be for pardoning any of that activity ?
It was screwing the USAâs foreign-policy interests and screwing the US taxpayer.
If Trump tried to pardon that, heâd be adding another element to a pattern of obstruction
of justice.
And Mueller almost certainly has the evidence for other charges against Manafort
for Trump campaign activities - itâs a tactical decision to charge him with the unambiguous
and easily-proved tax evasion and money-laundering first. [Also, thereâs speculation that
the younger Rick Gates might flip first, putting even more pressure on Manafort].
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As you watch how this masterfully unfolds, it brings home again how messed up the whole Ken Starr investigation truly was.
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Also: this judge, Beryl Howell, is exceptionally fluent in espionage, natsec, and cybersecurity issues. Sheâs assisted in the writing of much of the current important legislation in the area, as staff to Sen Leahy on Senate Judiciary committee, Gen Counsel to that committee, as a USA-AG and as a judge.
I dealt with her in her time @ Stroz Friedberg, and came away impressed. Sheâs no hack.
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Trump: Waste of time. I will pardon all of them*
* As long as they say nothing about me that puts me in a negative light.
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Tierney: Itâs Cotter, not Potter.
Welcome to the big leagues.
If I understand the article, damn Mueller and Team are slick.
Of the thought that another side effect of his one two punch with Papadopolus had one indelible effect. Trump can bracket Manafort and Gates as âLook no collusionâ, it all money laundering and stuff, but Papdopolus in proximity ties that right back in. It will leave an impression in the public mind for a long time to come.
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You got it, left jab followed by a right hook.
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Is the attorney in any jeopardy for having knowingly submitted a false statement form her clients or is the premise that she didnât know they were false?
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I think itâs M & G approved the statement. But she better lawyer-up anyway.
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Only if she knowingly did it. Sheâs not under any obligation to investigate her client. She has to use good judgment, but if Manafort lied to her, she wonât be held responsible for it.
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I would bet my paltry paycheck that heâs far more worried about dying at the hands of Putinâs boyos than in Club Fed.
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One hell of a scary caveat!
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This is one of those things that makes my profession one where you wake up at 3:00 am with anxiety attacks all the time.
Lawyers internalize the idea that as long as the information related to an opposing party or the government is from the client and the client signs off on it, our own behinds are covered. And, as long as its only facts, and not legal arguments, and weâre not being willfully or recklessly blind to facts indicating that the client is lying, thatâs more or less true.
But only from a malpractice and ethics standpoint. And the problem when youâre dealing with people accused of or investigated for crimes of deceit is that if theyâre guilty, that means theyâre lying liars who are probably the kinds of people whoâll lie to their lawyers. And people at this scale of white collar crime view their lawyers much the same as Trump doesâas mouthpieces, conduits, puppets, and disposable and interchangeable tools, minions, not people with whom you have a true confidential relationship.
Unless theyâve been involved in a really serious attorney-client privilege fight (on either side), a thing that can and should change your POV, the assumption that everything you say will be beyond discovery and inadmissible becomes like water to a fish. Your only ass-covering focus is letters and memos documenting oral communications you could use later to prove you didnât commit malpractice.
But when you represent people accused of crimes of deceit, you have to be damn careful what you put into the file and what communications you have in writing because you cannot rely on attorney-client privilege. Iâm not talking about only discussing dodgy stuff orally, but, rather, documenting that youâve done due diligence to establish that your client understands he shouldnât lie to you or use you to lie to the government. You have to assume your privilege will be penetrated, not protected.
Even more scary, however, is that when youâre responding to what look like routine investigative requests like this (routine because responding to these requests is what you do all the time and they almost always come to nothing or to a soft-landing for a client whoâs been a bit negligent), it might never even occur to you that the client could be using you to commit a crime or perpetrate a fraud. And then, boom, a U.S. Attorney or, even more terrifying, special prosecutor, is on your ass and after your files and suddenly you have to worry about every ambiguous-in-hindsight email, everything you didnât do, or document doing, to confirm the client wasnât lying to you, every snarky email to a coworker about the client. call that might have been on a tapped phone where something inconsistent with your recollection when you wrote a memo to the file documenting it was said.
I do not envy these lawyers. Not even a little bit. And, god, their risk management people must be going crazy.
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Yup- I am betting that Manafort is weighing life in prison against death by heart attack in a car trunk in Donetsk.
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I think everyone here is looking at how the Plame investigation played out very carefully. Libby took the fall for Cheney based on the assumption Cheney could get him a pardon. Bush wouldnât go for a full pardon but commuted his sentence after his appeals of the âprison pending appealâ ruling from the trial court. So Bush ensured he served no time, but left the âharshâ sanctions of public obloquy, the 250K fine, the supervised probation, and the âlikelihoodâ Libby would never get his law license back.
In the event, he didnât get the probation because he did no time, got his voting rights back from McDonnell in 2013 and got his law license back last year.
And Cheney, of course remained free, unimpeached, unindicted, and will live on in peace and evil contentment until the last unicorn screaming its despair in the darkness of his secure undisclosed unicorn stable is bled dry.
A fine of quarter or half a million and no time served? Manafort would take that in a heartbeat. Anyone doubt that the giver of the most abusive, grotesquely partisan and procedurally improper pardon in the history of the Republic will give it to him? Because Manafort and his lawyers donât seem to have any doubt at all.
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Itâs Cotter, not Potter.
I donât mean to be a dick, but as a long time TPM fan, I have to say these chronic small mistakes undermine the integrity of the work you do so well. Itâs one thing to have typos in a comments section or a blog, itâs another when youâre writing hard-hitting, well researched journalism that demands accuracy to underscore its veracityâŚ
Donât be surprised if Trump tries to use this as grounds for Mueller being fired.
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Thatâs how we know theyâre going for the pardon. Trial. Conviction. Sentencing. Pardon.
Iâm sure theyâd much rather live out their remaining days in freedom, WITH a federal criminal record, then admit guilt and spend that time in jail.
The only thing they need to consider, is whether they want the state of New York to put them in state prison or not.
But Donnie is working hard to insert a favorable US Attorney there to do his bidding.
we shall see.
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