Discussion: Clinton Takes A 19-Point Lead Over Trump In Virginia Poll

I can. I don’t want to THINK of what kind of crazy will now be unleashed after watching the last eight years. And that was PRE-TRUMP.

1 Like

Ohhhhhh ja ja ja ja ja ja ja ja ja!!!

2 Likes

:laughing:

2 Likes

It was also pre-losing all their overt power.

When this election is over the GOP won’t be the same thing it was pre-Trump. They will have lost the presidency again. It looks likely that they will lose the Senate too. The SCOTUS is going to swing back toward RBG, because that’s where the majority will be, not with the CJ.

Things are changing. I am curious what they’ll do after Hillary is sworn in.

The networks all have a policy of not calling a particular state until the state closes. Even though everyone and their mother knows she’ll beat the brakes off him in CA, the nets won’t call it until their polls close. Without their 55 EVs, and of course WA, OR, NV, NM, and CO, even with what she’ll pick up on the East Coast, she’ll probably not quite be at 270. Plus, you know how they are. They don’t want everyone tuning out and going to bed. They’ll sit there with baited breath biting their nails wondering aloud if Trump was able to GOTV in Portland and steal Oregon. They’ll question Pelosi’s ground game in San Francisco and Kornacki will draw all over a map of CA to tell you which counties Trump could do well in to pull the state his way. You just know they will.

3 Likes

FYI, Nate’s got this poll rated as a C+. Probably doesn’t like the sample AND the LV screen. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/

4 Likes
Hillary Clinton expanded her considerable lead over Donald Trump among voters in her vice president's home state of Virginia in the latest Roanoke College poll.

<pedantic>
Kaine is not Clinton’s vice president. He is her vice-presidential running mate.
</pedantic>

3 Likes

Ha. I was just coming to post that. It’s not pedantic, it’s upholding standards!

5 Likes

What’s really significant about this is that the margin in Virginia was about the same as the margin for the country as a whole in both 2008 and 2012. In 2008 the margin in Virginia was 53-47 for Obama and it was 53-46 for the country as a whole. In 2012 Virginia was 51-47 Obama and so was the rest of the country.

I have no doubt Clinton could take this by 19 points nationally this year, but we’ll see.

2 Likes

The New Drumpf Spokesdevil says the VA polls are rigged, and that Drumpf is leading bigly in the adjoining states of East Virginia, North Virginia, and South Virginia.

5 Likes

The networks could call the election nationwide before the west coast polls close, but that would only happen if Hillary Clinton was projected to win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes without California, Oregon, Hawaii and Washington State. Possible, but not that likely. It would require her winning Florida decisively and Virginia very decisively (enough so that they could call the state before the usually late reporting DC suburbs report in significant numbers).

That’s true, but they won’t do it if for no other reason than they want to keep as many eyeballs on their channel as late and long as possible. The last thing they want is people tuning out. That’s why they’re keeping up the horse race narrative.

2 Likes

Kaboom!

1 Like

Yet Quinnipiac University, which Nate rates as an A- has Clinton up by +11 in Virginia over basically the same time period (ended one day earlier than the Roanoke Poll).

4 Likes

I realize that with the Dems only narrowly winning the Senate at this point, the House is nearly certainly wishful thinking, but… Hey, after reading this, I’m feeling wishful. Ohio and Iowa aren’t very encouraging at this point, but hey, a few more margins like Virginia…

Alternately, sure, I’ll take those judicial appointments. But what does she run on in four years, after four years of total obstruction of everything else? Probably after a recession? Probably against a much stronger GOP candidate at the top of the ticket?

3 Likes

What if the GOP totally goes to pieces once the election is over? What if we get the Senate back; what if we regain the House? What if there is nothing left of the GOP to obstruct with? What if her good relationships in Congress override the remaining idiots.

It’s easy to play what if. But lI don’t think a what if that ends in the GOP getting away with what they’ve gotten away with with Obama is very likely. The party is at war with itself and falling apart.

Right. Why we need poll aggregators!!!

1 Like

Fun zayn moyl, in Gots oyer.

NoVa is one place that won’t tolerate Trump’s bullshit

2 Likes

No - we have to focus on 2018, start setting up house and hang on to senate, which is going to be tough with more D incumbants in purple states.

2 Likes