Discussion: Clinton Posts Nearly 30-Point Leads In Ohio, Florida Polls

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Discussion for article #247103

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I just read a column over at fivethirtyeight. They are scratching their heads over how they (and everyone else) could have gotten Michigan so wrong.
Interesting times.

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They were wrong but given primaries it is hard to judge turn out. Not to mention it did not have much of an impact. Clinton still won the day in a sizable way by dominating Mississippi. Michigan was almost 50-50 with Sanders taking a few more delegates. So it was only a modest help to him.

It was good for his side, but net it did not do much to help him. As Clinton widened her lead.

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If these polls hold up it will “All be over but the crying.” after Tuesday.

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Yeah, suuuure. You want us to believe this like we did the 20+ polling lead in Michigan? I don’t think so.

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After the polls being off by Silver’s average of over 21 points, the greatest upset in the history of primary politics, you still think these polls matter?

How ridiculous can you get? Where’s the headline about a guy who fought every disadvantage possible and beat one of the strongest, most vicious political machines in the modern era?

He’s going to win this race. Now that Pagliano is talking, will Jake, Cheryl or Huma be the next to trade staying out of jail for immunity? First to turn always gets the best deal. When that happens, Hillary’s stock will tank - even among the superdelegates, eventually, who won’t want to go down with the Clinton ship.

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Michigan polls also showed her in the lead. Her campaign needs to get her message out. At a rally I attended in Omaha last week, Bill Clinton outlined her plans to create jobs. She needs to get this message through to the voters.
Also, Sanders duplicity on the auto bailout, artful smear on Hillary’s honesty, his discusting coddling of the gun industry while demeanizing other industries need to be addressed.

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Agreed, that we are flying blind in terms of the polling, but Sanders’ chance at the nomination is still very slim. But all bets are off now at the bookies. The value of polling will have to wait until the results come in on Tuesday night. If they are more in line, then Michigan was what it was. But if the polls are off by the same huge margins…then the pilot will have to fly without instruments. Navigate by the stars, I guess.

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Well, they almost certainly won´t. Ohio and Michigan are close enough demographically and economically that there is no way that they´ll be a 30 point spread. HRC will probably win, but I´ll bet it will be close.

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I don’t get it: we are facing a GOP that wants to take us back a 100 years and all this rage is directed against a member in good standing of our own party?

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If she does win Ohio by a large margin, that will be kind of weird. Those places are pretty damn similar. I’m guessing she is probably going to lose Ohio, but who knows at this point? who knows?

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Doesn’t really matter. Florida and Ohio are the mother lodes of presidential election politics. If HRC wins both those states its over.

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They are similar states, but Ohio is a tad more conservative, and Sanders won MI by under 2 points. But as you say: who knows?

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mag - I think he needs to win some of the large western primaries by about 20 points to catch up. He’s had larger margins in similar states already.

JM - I, personally, don’t feel Hillary is in good standing. My wife cannot bear listening to her. Her trustworthiness numbers are in the pits. I personally believe Trump will rip her apart, and the email thing may still be under investigation. At this point, the more it’s delayed, the more it hurts her.

Why won’t she release her transcripts? That’s BS. She’s hiding transcripts. She’s hiding (30k discarded) emails. They are only beginning to figure out the State/Foundation/Abedin stituation. We’ll have to live with a philandering first husband in the White House.

In my view, if that’s still going on, she would be in good standing with the party if she stepped down for it’s good and supported her competitor, from which she has stolen virtually every element of her platform, except the ones that aren’t so popular. (Yesterday, she had the gall to actually say “We’re all in this together.” I believe that’s someone else’s signature line.)

Then I’d consider her an honorable person.

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I wouldn’t get complacent.

Hit Ohio, Florida, Illinois and North Carolina at least once a day, every day for the next week.

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This happened with NH and CA in 2008. NH pretty much polished off Rasmussen’s already declining reputation.

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Both Florida and Ohio proportion their delegates, so it really depends on the size of any victory.

As @upwitoulz points out down thread, the R primaries in those states are winner-take-all.

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What is her message this week? Sanders’ duplicity? And sorry, he’s had plenty of chances to smear Hillary’s honesty and he hasn’t taken them. It’s 90% of the population that believes that. Today, there is not an iota of achievable difference in their gun policies, most of which he has held for decades.

If you recall, Clinton ran to the right of Obama on guns in 2008, because it was politically expedient after his “guns and bible” remark in PA. She was so bad he called her “Annie Oakley.”

Sorry, can’t agree with a thing you say. But, that’s democracy.

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HRC is by any measure a mainstream Democrat. And personally, ‘trustworthiness’ doesn’t particularly bother me. I don’t really care how ‘trustworthy’ pols are, I just look at what they actually do. Specifically, what points of HRC’s current platform is she now being deceptive about (Other than the TPP, which I think she will certainly support if elected…)?

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They apparently had Clinton winning MI with a 99% confidence level. That´s gotta hurt.

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