@Chiari—Interesting point about the bettors. If we look at sports betting, the idea is to create a market that makes them money. They generally work hard to pay attention the math trends in front of them to make their decisions. The fact that the percentage spread has gone back up post-debate should tell us that betting on Trump is a losing proposition. But, then, we already knew that.
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A PS–This is my first TPM post. I am a long time “lurker,” and have especially enjoyed the comments section, particular Matt in PA and the incomparable Ghost of Eustace Tilley. I can only hope to rise to their level every once in awhile.
I am delighted to hear that NM registration is “going through the roof”, and would appreciate a link to the numbers. I hope you mean Democratic registration. We have a house in northern NM and spend summers there, and, frankly, I was both surprised and concerned that we didn’t find much interest at all in the Hispanic community as recently as September. In fact, it was of so much concern to us that I started lecturing young adults who were feeding me the Bernie lines about how awful Hillary is. Lines that NM television had also been spewing forth daily. So, I hope you are right.
Based on what poll? There haven’t been any polls released since the video came out or the 2nd debate. Before that, the latest was a Monmouth poll that had her up 11 in Colorado in the 4 way.
That’s nearly twice Obama’s victory margin. But by all means, send up those red flags of DOOM
It is hard to overstate how much I hope you and Monmouth are right. Really! But I am just passing along what this pollster said-- the guy worked both in the WH for Bill Clinton, and at the DNC for Howard Dean (who was on the show at the same time). I wasn’t taking notes when this fellow was talking - and I might have the spread off a bit - but I have heard other similar concerns about the Hispsnic vote. And as I wrote in response to another response to my posting, I was getting the same type of reaction, myself, as recently as mid-September in New Mexico.
