15 points was an outlier.
I guess TPM only covers Reuters/Ipsos polls when the results are unfavorable to Clinton.
only negative polls against HRC get coverage. BTW 7 points is a huge lead at this point
Sounds dangerously similar to the “skewed polls” mentality… let’s take it back to reality, shall we? TPM isn’t anti-Hillary.
Its not rocket science - Bernie voters are a little pissed off (many of them at Bernie, oddly enough), Trump voters are at peak mania, the rest of the public is at peak not-giving-a-damn… and Hillary is still winning big. These polls might be a outlier, or they might just be an accurate July poll of a fatigued electorate.
The important things to note: Trump still can’t surpass 40% and probably never will, Hillary is building a solid GOTV op, and polls in July mean nothing.
I’m not concerned about polling at this point. I won’t be overly concerned even if the polling is close because Clinton’s ground organization is far superior to Trump’s. My problem is with TPM’S selective coverage of polling.
Oh, noes! Clinton lead in national poll shrinks from massive to only impressive! We are doomed!!
Not much, no. If the polling still shows rough parity by the end of August, then you should be concerned. I’m expecting polling +10 (or better) for HRC by that time. We’ll see how well my prognostication fares.
Next weeks poll should be better for Trump. It should be his high water mark. The week following Clinton takes center stage so her polls will go up. The race will settle in around the end of August. The crazies scare a the living crap out of me. Democrats have to do something to take the edge of the anti-Hillary hate. She doesn’t have to change minds she just has to instill a little doubt in the crazies.
For whatever reason, Real Clear Politics refuses to take this poll into account when publishing its polling average. But you’d better believe they get EVERY SINGLE RASMUSSEN POLL published each day into that calculation. Wonder why that is?
Per this 2 year old article white males make up 31% of population.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/10/08/65-percent-of-all-american-elected-officials-are-white-men/
Since I believe white males make up the vast majority of voters that will vote Trump for president, I’m really thinking Trump should lose in a massive landslide since I like many other white males won’t be voting for him and I don’t think there are enough women/non-whites that will vote for him to make up for my categories loss. I’m really hoping for like a 75 to 25 crushing defeat, regardless of what these phone call type polls predict!
What is a polling neophyte to believe?
Oh my my … the front page headline…
July 20, 2016 - TPM PollTracker
Clinton Lead Over Trump Shrinks In National Tracking Poll
Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump shrunk by eight points since last week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos national poll released Tuesday night.
Stick with Sam Wang at Princeton Polling.
http://election.princeton.edu/category/2016-election/
~OGD~
Meh. Reuters has been showing Hillary with a comfortable lead for quite some time. The uptick to 15 came about the same time that state polling was confirming what the latest NBC/ABC/CBS national polling was saying…which is, Hillary has a significant lead.
My point is, Reuters is probably best used to follow trends, not actual numbers. They tick up when everyone else ticks up, they tick down when everyone else ticks down. And they provide a lot of data points.
Hillary should be dropping right now…this entire week is republicans bashing Hillary and her campaign sitting silently on the sidelines. However, Melania’s screw up (and the entire amateur hour that has been on display in Cleveland) are not going to give Trump the sort of post convention bump he desperately wanted.
I fully expect to see that bounce occur after ours…and in about 2 weeks we will have both conventions baked into the numbers. I fully expect Hillary to be posting a significant lead at the point, with state by state polling backing that up.
15 was a bit of a stretch. IOW, no news, no bounce. If Nate doesnt report it, I say Meh!
From the way things are going, I don’t know if Trump will get a bounce or a thud after the convention. It’s shading to a thud though.
Still too early for these to mean much. Late August through September will have the significant polls.
His convention bounce pulls him within seven. snrxxx