Discussion for article #242209
I can hear the Bernie supporters shrieking “OUTLIER POLL” right through my computer monitor.
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Pretty much the definition of outlier.
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The link is to Monmouth polling of the GOP in Iowa , TPM.
Only if you don’t consider that time frames of the previous polls being used on RCP. Hillary is showing movement in every poll coming out right now. And while the size of this might be on the high side, I have very little doubt that the direction is absolutely correct. And Monmouth is a pretty decent polling group, they aren’t some fly by night new operation.
Arguing that this is an outlier because the polls from two week ago don’t show the same numbers is ignoring what has happened in the past two weeks…all of which has been extremely positive for Hillary. Including having Biden drop out right before her 11 hour marathon. That not only freed up a significant amount of voters, but it did so at precisely the time when she is looking very positive. Think of it as a double bounce.
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Just stop it with the near daily friggin’ Iowa polls already! Jesus H. Christ on beaver, Iowa is a nothing state in presidential politics, save for the fact they they are one of the first! Rick Santorum won in 2012 for Goddess sake! Rick “shit stain” SANTORUM!
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Same pollers that have Carson up by 14 over Trump in Iowa.
That’s true for Republicans. Iowa Democrats, however, are much better at choosing the eventual nominee.
ETA: Over the past 40 years, IA Dems have correctly picked the eventual nominee all but two times.
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No need to shriek , I’m sure it is an outlier.
Even if her support is overstated, and Bernie’s understated, it is obviously good news for Hillary, and a marked difference from predebate numbers.
I imagine the pendulum is still swinging some before it’s all over.
As a Bernie supporter, I’m still glad Hillary has recovered from her low points. I didn’t want either to win in a walk. Nor do I want either particularly damaged politically, they will be each other’s best asset in the general, bringing their respective constituencies to the eventual nominee. Also, competition is good practice for the general.
If she holds this pace and energy, and backs way off the naked “vote for my vagina” message she will do well. She has much more to offer, and it comes off as it’s the main reason to vote for her in her NH commercials I have been seeing. (should women vote for Fiorina should Bernie pull out a win? Obviously not…)
Obama treaded much more lightly around being a “first”, it was the right balance.
I concede playing the fist woman angle carries less risk, but can still be overplayed.
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I’d vote for Hillary in the general in a heartbeat, but her favorability numbers are under water and Sanders’ is very high. Likability matters. Look at 2008.
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“vote for my vagina”
LOL!!
I agree and I’m a huge Hill supporter. She needs to back waaaay fuck off that message. It comes across terribly. There was a moment in the debate where she made that point like three time in a row, ratatatat. It was the worst moment for me. I thought for sure it was going to be THE gaffe her critics seized upon.
Also, out here in CO we lost a GREAT guy in Mark Udall last cycle and he pushed that same all repro rights all day shtick super hard. Women’s rights are a real issue, I am not diminishing it in any way, but it is one of many that need to be addressed. And saying that her gender is a primary reason for our vote is her least pursuasive argument, imo.
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Outlier, or short term bump, same difference… It’s unlikely to remain at this level long… (political gravity and such)
It’s still good news for Hillary, and fortunate to have been polled during the crrent sweet spot of good news for her. (she’s had polling resultsduring low points too, so that’s fair enough)
I felt the same way regarding the debate “low”.
My comment is more about the commercials here in NH. They are a bit on the nose.
It may still be smart politics as NH is clearly happy to vote in women(i have cast some of those votes too, not Ayotte, but others)
It may also bring out even more so the republican misogynist reactions to this which could play well, I suppose.
Yeah, but likable as Sanders is (I like him, too) the fact is that he is not a viable candidate for the general. He has never had to deal with the Republican attack machine. They would make mincemeat out of him, turning him into Leon Trotsky’s secret love child.
Another BIG problem for Sanders is his age. He turns 75 two months before the election. Hillary’s age is also an issue, but she has six years on Bernie. Sanders would be by far the oldest person ever to run for a first term.
And the fact that he’s from Vermont. Remember our last two candidates from New England? That was John Kerry and Michael Dukakis.
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I’m not. I’m amazed at that commanding lead. Of course, it’s a long time before the actual primaries and Hillary has name-recognition from over two decades of national exposure. Bernie is just becoming known. We’ll see. I’ll be okay with Hillary if she wins, but I strongly prefer Bernie.
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I think even a majority of Sanders’ likely voters in the primaries and caucuses realize he is a protest candidate and is not really a serious option ala Obama v. Clinton in the general. Some fraction of his voters are upset when you say that but realistically I think that’s true. A 41 point lead seems a bit much given repeatedly the protest person does fairly well in Iowa but the point holds.
I’m not so sure. I think the idea of a woman president resonates with a lot of people, including some aged white males like me.
It’s not the only reason to vote for her, but it’s part of the picture.
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There are also some things in Bernie’s personal life that would hurt him, as well as some comments he’s made over the years about women’s health.
I like the guy too, love his policies, but the fact that Larry David, who I absolutely adore, can do such a spot-on imitation of him without even trying is indicative of the problems Bernie will have appealing to a larger audience. He comes across as a curmudgeon, he looks and sounds like the guy telling the kids to get off his lawn.
I think the poll properly reflects that Bernie hasn’t got a chance. His challenge will be broken by Clinton fairly quickly and easily. Simply put, Bernie is no Barack Obama. While many far left Dems may like his politics, he does not have the same gift for connecting with and inspiring people that carried Obama to the Presidency.
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There’s another poll out from Iowa that shows similar results:
http://loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/a2/a25b395d-257a-48e7-b082-68e8d10aa95c.pdf
Clinton: 61%
Sanders: 23%
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