Discussion for article #239850
Anyone feel like, if Biden runs, chaos will happen on the Democratic side?
I don’t know if I do…not sure how likely he is to win.
I don’t think having another viable contender means chaos. It means that people feel they have some choice in the matter and so will engage. There are many people who accept Clinton only because there is no one else perceived as a viable general election candidate – not because they are enthusiastic supporters. I know this discounts Sanders, but really – can he win the General election? As much as I like him, I don’t think he does. And we can’t afford to lose this election – and that is the only reason why I think Biden is even considering a run at this difficult time in his life.
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What gets me about this entire election is the fact that it reads like the 2008 election. Everyone said Clinton was going to win and Obama could never win the General Election and yet that isn’t how it played out. I’m not necessarily sanguine about Sanders’ chances in the General, but I think that they are far better than anyone thinks they are.
If Joe is questioning whether he has the “emotional fuel” to run it means he doesn’t have it at this point.
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I really like Biden, and I think that he would do a great job. I am not sure that he would be a terrific candidate, but I think that he could pull it through in the General Election.
That being said, I just don’t think that he should do it. If he is questioning himself at this point, I just don’t see him having what it takes to make it through what will be a really bruising campaign.
After all of these years, I think he should get some well-deserved rest and enjoy his family. He has given more than enough to our country, and I think that the party should look elsewhere for additional strong candidates.
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I have a pretty good idea of his chances to win. Zero.
Democrats have been asked well over 100 times if they want Biden to be their candidate. The answer has always been a resounding no. There is not one single poll in the past 3 1/2 years that shows Biden winning the nomination…or even coming close. I believe the average spread against Hillary over that time frame has been something like 34 points.
The polling today says the same thing; Biden loses to Hillary. By a lot. Yes, he has higher favorables…but that’s because he isn’t running for anything. Put him in the race and on the campaign trail for a month, and his favorables are tanking as well. People genuinely like Biden the non-candidate. And they won’t vote the Biden the candidate.
And any person wrestling with this question…isn’t going to survive the actual campaign. I think this is pretty good indicator that Biden isn’t in this.
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He’s an independent. As far as I know,he’s never ran as a Dem for Senator in VT. I can’t support anyone who would do that and then run for the nomination of either party as POTUS.
Sounds like a, “thanks, but no thanks,” to me.
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A lot of the reasons given here why Biden shouldn’t run could be explained by Biden not panning to run until recently. Only just beginning to think about it would explain not summoning the emotional fuel. It would also affect the poll numbers, as nobody else has been thinking of Biden as a candidate either. I do not think Biden entering the race would lead to chaos. He probably would not be serious competition to Clinton, but if Clinton self-destructs for any reason, Biden already in the race might avoid automatically ceding 2016 to the Republicans.
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I just want to point out, that worrying about losing an election with a candidate that is leading every GOP candidate, usually by double digits, doesn’t make a great deal of sense. The favorability nonsense that the media keeps banging Hillary over the head with? She has better numbers than every single GOP candidate. And, at the end of the day, even if people despise both candidates…they still have to elect one of them.
Hillary was winning in March. She was winning in April, She was winning in May. She was winning in July. She is winning in August. And the averages of the polling shows that her margins aren’t even changing. She is beating every GOP candidate, and has been since the campaigns started. Which is pretty amazing considering A) Obama is negative in the polls still B) She is running for what would be the 3rd Democratic term in a row C) The press has been giving much more coverage to the GOP field and D) The press has been giving her very negative coverage. Find me a MSM article that has put Hillary in a favorable light in the past 3 months.
I know its a boring story for the media to cover, but…Hillary is winning. Exactly as she has been for months.
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But Sanders is not anywhere near as a charismatic figure as Obama is. I was an early Obama supporter – went to work for his campaign before there was even an official headquarters in Seattle. I just knew he would win – and it was because he struck the right balance between youthful optimism and reconciliation. Of course, it didn’t turn out quite as we’d envisioned… but I am still thrilled hat we got him elected and think he’s been a fine president. I simply don’t have the same confidence that Sanders and his pissed off old man (however appropriate it is to be pissed) will bring people out to vote in numbers the way Obama did. If I thought that he had that ability, I would work my ass off for him. I just worry getting him the nomination will backfire on us.
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So why does it hurt her to have people flirting with a Biden run? I think it draws people’s attention to the primary race – which is important. That said – voters do need to feel they have some real choice. Frankly Davey – I wish I had the same confidence in Hillary Clinton’s ability to win the general as you. I’d sleep easier – but I feel this tension that there will be yet another damaging scandal that drops at the last minute and I do not not want us to be caught without a well laid contingency plan. Right now, it seems like we are being dragged along by inertia instead of enthusiasm.
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i’m guessing he won’t do it; too much stress too soon after the death of beau. and the hits against hunter earlier this week were just a hint at what he’d encounter. and he does have some questionable calls in his past…
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This Biden “boomlet” is created by bored political reporters hoping for more conflict on the Democratic side, Hillary-haters in the media of which there are many, and not just on the right-wing (see Times, NY) and self-interested parties in the Biden camp who would profit from a run.
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You are being dragged down by inertia because that is the GOP (Bush) strategy. And the fact that they found the NYT only too willing to play along has made it that much more effective. But it is nothing more than a smear campaign, one the GOP has been working up for years.
That’s why I try to push back on it so strongly here, and everywhere else I go. I know I sound like a big Clinton supporter, but I am actually more of a horse race/process addict. I just come across as a Clinton supporter because from a horse race perspective, she is, and always has been, clearly the favorite. And I push back so hard on these narratives because they ARE baseless smear campaigns easily fed to a lazy media that doesn’t want to run the same story week in, week out that…Hillary is clearly still the favorite.
Biden running doesn’t hurt Hillary. She is clearly leading in every poll, and they all include Biden. She came out yesterday saying she wants Biden to make the decision that suits him best. That isn’t the sort of statement a candidate makes if she is worried about his entrance into the race.
That being said, Biden deciding not to run will result in an even bigger boost for Hillary in the Democratic polls. Conservatively I am guessing about 2/3 of his support goes to Hillary.
I just don’t see this “damaging scandal” on the horizon that everyone is clutching pearls about. We are talking about a woman that has been under incredible national scrutiny for literally decades. There just aren’t going to be a gaggle of skeletons hiding in her closet.
And just wait. Right now, there are too many republican candidates for the Dems to start listing out all of their skeletons. But once they have a nominee, you will be laughing at this nonstory of email/Benghazi compared to what is going to be making the headlines about Bush, Walker, Trump, whoever.
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I am so sick and tired of media pundits trying to push poor old VP Biden to run for POTUS. Doesn’t he deserve to retire in dignity and go home and be with his family and try to put his emotional and physical health back together. VP Biden has already missed the bus in my opinion, and in every poll he comes in third which is where he will stay throughout a physical and grueling campaign. His favorables are good right now because he is a sitting VP. As soon as he becomes a candidate he is just another politician.
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No, he doesn’t. I feel extremely protective of Biden, and I don’t want him to run because I don’t want to see that man hurt anymore than he’s already been. I don’t think I have the emotional wherewithal to see him beat up in a primary.
Kerry was beating Bush in a lot of polls too.