Discussion for article #245352
We can but hope there is as much confusion on the Republican side as there was in 2012 when Romney was declared the winner then Santorum after a couple of weeks then Ron Paul gobbled most of the Iowa delegates later.
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The Democratic caucus system in Iowa is truly bizarre, convoluted and opaque. As I understand it, the actual popular vote numbers are never even reported, just the initial delegate numbers…which aren’t final either, as further delegates are then selected at the district and state level, according to a process that even the most sophisticated press reports don’t try to explain.
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their pre-determined narratives do not require them to…
they will spin the results to advantage Trump and HRC (regardless of actual numbers) because that is the general election coverage the MSM wants to provide.
Several months of ratings gold, followed by 4 years of drama (for either outcome) is too much to pass up.
My understanding of Iowa is the delegates are going right to the state convention. I’ve participated in walking su caucuses and I admit hating them and seeking a replacement, but they do have the virtues of ensuring proportional representation, and of letting anyone seek to be a delegate. When I voted in primaries it felt like dropping my ballot into black hole. In a caucus, you look into the face of the people seeking election as delegates, or you run and make your case. Though in my state, precincts are small and you’re meeting neighbors. My impression is such Iowa precincts are too big for that.
The precinct delegates go to a county meeting, where they perform the same ritual. The survivors then go to district meetings, and then finally the state convention in June.
Unsurprisingly, with such a Byzantine process the final results bear little relation to the initial ballot. In 2012 on the GOP side, Rick Santorum narrowly won the first round, but ended up with 0 delegates at the end. Most went to Ron Paul, who knew how to pack a meeting.
Texas has a bifurcated Democratic primary where the delegate awarding is partly by popular vote and partly by caucus. It’s baffling. I don’t know the history of it. The way the caucus part of it is run discourages participation by all but party activists.
No, there will not be a late-night result, at least, not in the Democratic Caucus. That’s not how the caucus works. There are no ballots to count, people stand in a room and are physically counted. This is all over by about 8:30.
The GOP caucus is another story. Your basic facts about the 2012 caucus are incorrect. Romney’s win was announced early the next morning. Then over two weeks later, Santorum was announced as the real victor. But that was all BS. Ultimately, at the national convention, the Iowa GOP delegates voted for Ron Paul.
It appears that journalists have written millions of words about the Iowa Caucus but nobody has looked at how the caucus actually works in practice. This is lazy journalism.
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Your understanding is incorrect, at least for the Iowa Democratic Party process that I have participated in for years.
Precinct delegates go to the County Convention. Some of them are elected to go to the State Convention. Then the final State selection of delegates goes to the National Convention.
The GOP apparently has no clear process. In 2012, the GOP National Delegates went rogue and voted for Ron Paul, who came in #3 in caucus votes.
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How much does it really matter?
Where are the 2008-2012 GOTP winners of the Iowa caucus?
A) Scraping the bottom of the barrel
B) Beyond redemption
C) Still sinking
D) All of the above
A true sophisticated press report would not discuss which Democratic candidate will “win Iowa.” This is not a winner-take-all contest. Hillary will win delegates. Sanders will win delegates. OMalley might even win some delegates, although that is unlikely.
Everyone who wins delegates, wins Iowa. Hilary and Bernie will both win Iowa.