Yes, there will be false negative tests. That is true whether the quarantine period is 5 days, 10 days, or 14 days. The change in guideline just reflects that you can catch the great majority of infectious cases after five days of quarantine (which is, realistically, more like 10-15 days after most people’s potential exposure is recognized). Release from quarantine isn’t license for the patient to go hog wild on risky behavior.
Also, that blood testing data from last December is almost surely erroneous. It would imply that about 1.4 percent of Americans had already been infected a year ago. That’s crazy talk.
I posted an article from WSJ that mentioned the Mid-Dec. blood donation data. I think it was about 109 people. I have no idea what that would extrapolate to as far as the entire U.S. population that would represent.
You posted: “Release from quarantine isn’t license for the patient to go hog wild on risky behavior.” It is for a whole lot of people. That is one of the reasons I prefer to take a cautious approach to the whole re-adjusting the quarantine time, until we actually have good, validated implementation data, and not just bench models.
Give the typical american trump supporter an inch, and they’ll take a mile, or 2 or 4, because they can’t measure anyway.
With that said, I wish you peace on this. We won’t agree on everything, but I respect your opinion and your knowledge.
Azar is on the tube this morning flogging the great things they are doing with vaccines. He ended his spiel with a plea for plasma donations. I heard him do that last week, too. HOWEVER…I have read a couple of stories on reports showing the convalescent plasma shows no benefits. Thoughts?
106 positive antibody tests out of about 7,389 samples is 1.43%. So either their sample pool consisted of the most unfortunate people in the country, or there was a giganitic wave of infections and their attendant deaths in December 2019-January 2020, or their antibody tests are picking up something other than COVID-19 antibodies. I know which one I’m betting on.
We’ll know the answers in the fullness of time – maybe 10 years? In the meantime, until vaccines and treatments are actually working, with a CDC that is getting back into actually doing good disease surveillance and reporting to the public, I’m gonna wear a mask, stay out of crowds, wash my hands, clean and disinfect as appropriate (but not go crazy) and do the best I can to maintain a healthy and proactive life.
My PCP (primary doc) is 50. She intends to wear a mask as long as she remains in practice. She figures she got 20 more years to go. She’s smart.
This seems like a sensible change that makes absolutely no difference to me. I shall remain self-imprisoned within my fortress of solitude until I am either vaccinated or dead.
You could be right. But, unfortunately, Chiselin’ Trump has politicized our response to COVID-19 so much that my immediate response to this change is to doubt that it is based on good science. <sigh>
It lines up with all the science we’ve seen over the last few months on how infections present themselves. And since Fauci apparently approved the change, I think we can trust that it is scientifically sound.
I see the benefit of shortening the quarantine as a way to keep our health care and other emergency providers staffed.
Up here in AK we have had our numbers go from around a hundred a day to almost 800 in weeks, not big numbers but big percentages, on the west coast we have a region with the highest infection rate in the nation. We still have beds and equipment but we are struggling for staffing.
I’m hoping no one thinks the shortened quarantine allows one to be less safe, it will not change the protocol in our home.
Sad to think we need wait fifty days to get back serious leadership that removes doubt.
This is just another example of the comprehensive harm that Trump has caused to our trust in government. Before Trump, there would be no doubt or debate about the validity of these numbers. Regardless of how good, or bad, they actually are, the fact that they are coming from this administration’s CDC makes them automatically suspect.
