As a rule, I ignore conspiracy theorists – or, as happens here from time to time, I mock them. (In general, Josh’s commentators tend to be more sophists than conspiracists, YMMV.)
The problem with “generalized skepticism” is that it easily degenerates into sophistry or sensationalism.
So (naturally) we are saved by baseball analogies.
Cervantes’ embarrassing sophistry (which, being miseducated he confused with logic and even language) is a factual problem: the data shows that Epstein has a roughly one in three chance of having fractured his own, elderly hyoid (the word of the day!) in hanging himself. Going from the slender fact that 2/3s of the time that would indicate murder not a suicide is factually unsound (viz, it’s not an error in logic). The proper analogy is when a guy hitting .333 comes to bat with first base open. Depending on the situation, it’s wise to walk him so you can pitch to the guy hitting .220 (especially if the good hitter is slow and the weak batter hits ground balls). That’s true even though the good hitter will fail two-thirds of the time: thus, baseball teaches proper thinking techniques.
Txlawyer’s mistake, in baseball terms, is trying to score a situation, assuming a double play. You can’t do that. There are reasons.
Suppose a runner on first and a ball grounded to shortstop. He throws to first to gt the batter, but the runner slides into second under the tag, That’s a fielders’ choice, not an error. The shortstop made a whopping mistake (Stengel would have embarrassed him; McGraw might have socked him), but – it’s not an error. He made the out at first. The scorer cannot assume a double play.
Take an egregious example – same situation, runner on first with less than two outs: a ball hit to the second baseman, who bobbles it instead of feeding the shortstop at second. So when the second baseman does get a grip, he throws to first – again, getting the batter but missing what should have been an easy first out. That’s not an error, for the same reason: the batter was out at first. You cannot assume a double play.
Txlawyer is insisting that because Epstein was a probable suicide (cuz of circumstances and temperament, not to mention a prior attempt), therefore any skeptical analysis of surrounding factors “posits” a conspiracy.
That assumes a double play.
