The fact that Judis believes that Obama won in 2008 because of the financial crisis is why I can’t take him seriously as a political analyst.
This seems, to me, a key issue that has never been addressed. “Automation” and “labor saving devices” never lead to the actually logical question of what do people do with the free time? Workers do not receive ANY benefit from being automated out of a job, and the .001% that are making money off the deal are not inclined to share that nor to care for the workers displaced.
There are only so many jobs in the left and retraining/reeducation programs for displaced workers will not increase the number of jobs that are available.
A strong government with high tax rates COULD provide all basic services of food and shelter and healthcare, but the few that have the money (and, at present, the power) are not going to go along with that easily, if ever.
So, how do we provide for the human population that have no means of supporting themselves???
I don’t have any answers, but the question has to be asked and answered at some point.
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FWIW, I used to play poker with Ruy in the early 1980s in Madison, Wisconsin. My recollection is that he wasn’t bad, but that could be wrong…
I’m an optimist, so his position appeals to me, I agree with one of the main points in his book, which is that the shrinkage of the middle class is largely people moving up to the upper middle class. Those on the left shouldn’t buy into the Trump narrative (stolen from the opening song on “All in the Family”) that things were better in the 1950s. They absolutely were not, even for whites. Those houses you could buy on the income from a factory job, were tiny and cramped and lacking in amenities. We are better off today and will be better off in 50 years unless we make really horrible choices (which is not impossible). Trump will be seen as a historical anomaly, a temporary insanity.
You could add to the list of damaging information that’s now being used in the post mortems this book. It’s called Shattered by two talking heads. Why didn’t these all wise heads come out earlier and impart their wisdom to the campaign team? Then they’d have nothing to write about.
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Had the outcome of the election been different, the book would have been called Superb and hailed the Clinton campaign as the best-run campaign in history.
Whatever you think about the analysis, the economic model needs to work for most people people, if not all. Markets help with financial efficiency, but they need to consider the quality of investment, technological innovation, environment and protection of natural legacies, health, education, quality of life, etc. Politicians, in contrast, see the economy by a single metric, growth, which usually means GDP growth. If Democrats could at least reposition the discussion to something like in Denmark, you could at least turn the discussion to growing the quality of life. If you do that at least you might begin to restore larger and happier middle class, not just a wealthier one that faces many externalized costs.
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How many more decades are we going to be subjected to this useless kind of “inevitability” and demographic determinism stuff. Please. Stop.
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They are getting this wrong. The Right comes to power out of either fear or complacency. The Left comes to power to clean up The Right’s mess. It has been that way for the entire history of our country. The progressive gains at the turn of the 20th century gave rise to complacency of Coolidge and Hover for which FDR came in to “clean up the mess”. GW Bush was elected out of complacency of the Clinton era for which Obama was elected to “clean up the mess”. We have Trump because of fear, and the fact that Obama was less than totally successful in his cleaning of the mess which allowed the Trump “fear”. The premise that the left doesnt do as well in bad times is crazy. They MAKE the good times out of bad.
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Just not buying it. The discernible course of recent US history is that when the Republicans have power they loot until they collapse the economy. Pinched into real pain, the people vote in the opposition party. The Democrats fix things up and things get back on track. Voters, now complacent because things are going well, completely forget the damage Republicans did and put them back in office. Where upon, the cycle repeats itself.
I see nothing whatsoever to break this cycle. Dems have proven themselves unable to build upon their success or communicate effectively, while Republicans easily mislead voters about GOP failures and make absurdist promises voters eat up.
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Not a well-schooled economist, LBJ still puts his finger on something that has only grown since then. The political trickery he points to has been much further advanced by, first, segmented marketing. This is pretty much analog and based mostly on both applied Freudian and Jungian psychology.
Now, second, we have pervasive and comprehensive price discrimination. This is digital. It steals what used to be “consumer surplus” and through government concessions created, nurtured, and protected by deregulation.
Deregulation is not the opposite of regulation. It is government regulation in the form of protecting and apportioning monopoly rent-shares among the immediately regulated parties to magisterial proceedings but ultimately to their lenders and, on the margin, to political contributors.
This is something that both parties make sure their voters know nothing about and can do nothing about. But, given the betrayal of loyalty involved and the lack of voice it entails, this leads to massive exit from both parties, hence, very volatile and hard to explain elections.
Sorry, but Teixeira’s proven acuity for predicting events is not better, and is probably worse, than Bill Kristol’s, George Will’s. Leon Trotsky’s and Karl Marx’s. If this guy told me the sun would rise tomorrow I would go out and buy floodlights.
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I think the word ‘triumph’ must be defined. It surely doesn’t mean a permanent ruling Party and shouldn’t. Ideally, we’d have two real Parties in our two Party system that no matter their ideals and agendas, always put America first.
I don’t ever see the right getting back to this and in fact, their survival techniques are being rewarded, not penalized, so why should they. Being sort of liberalish is a loser for them.
I don’t believe that a candidate Trump without Russian backing and meddling would’ve won. And I don’t think that there is another Trump around the corner, unless the family dives in, in which case, we are in for a long cold Siberian styles winter.
America leans left in its heart of hearts but political wins obviously aren’t necessarily guaranteed by that.
The other side just cheats because they have to and that’s that.
Conclusion; all assumptions are based on fairness and righteousness and that is just a mental block of a way of looking at things. Reality says otherwise.
This discussion between Texeira and Judis is approximately the 973rd I’ve read over the past four years by liberal commentators that seeks to analyze the nature of our domestic politics without even once mentioning the word “religion.”
That makes as much sense as debating the nature of violent deaths in America without mentioning the word “firearm.”
yeah marnold and rick_b, but gerrymandering will only be undone if the Dems are able to recapture state houses and governorships and so far I see little indication that the Dem base gives a hoot about state legislatures. The well-funded right targeted those local races for decades and it will probably take a similar effort for the Dems to retake them. Not sure I see that happening.
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One thing that is impeding the left is their strident embracing of the hot new cause: allowing anatomical males to pee in the women’s room. And boycotting states that consider this a violation of basic modesty. Women who are uncomfortable with this are (god forbid) prejudiced. In fact, a lot of older women find this concept embarrassing.
It is obvious that the right is behind this, the same way they used to trot out gay marriage just before every national election.
I haven’t figured out why suddenly, transgenders must pee in the women’s room. And I don’t even think it comes from transgenders. I work with several, they’re cool guys, and don’t seem to have much interest in the restroom hysteria.
You know what else is missing? There is no mention of the fact that Europe and the U.S. are fundamentally different politically because Europe is densely populated and the U.S. isn’t. The seminal work on this issue is Ronald Rogowski’s Commerce and Coalitions. You can find chapter 1, which has all the key ideas, here: http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic248058.files/February%2018%20readings/Rogowski.pdf
In Texas the urban areas go blue in presidential elections.
Hillary Clinton losing the election was the best thing to happen to the Left. Let’s face it, the left did have a true enemy to rally against like the Right does with Hillary Clinton. Trump’s actions personify that and gives the left their villain to fight tooth and nail. (Maybe even consider holding off on gun restrictions to arm yourself just in case the Republicans attempt a coup.) And even if she did win, she would have just further undermined the left in America because the Republicans would just re-open the Obama playbook of nothing but obstruction. And worse pick away at pillars that are sacred to democrats, but not to neo-liberals like the Clintons. The base would be demoralized and Republicans would crush the midterms and further solidify their gains going into the 2020 census to further gerrymander everything they can. But we have Trump, and look at how fired up the left is. How they never would have been this engaged to make House seats that would normally be solid red, competitive.
Yes, everything that has happened now is terrible under Trump, but victory cannot come without sacrifice. And if you’re not willing to take that extra step to achieve it (Even if it means fellow Americans dying because of the negligence of Republicans.) Why bother to have some skin in the game when you’re going to be dead weight?
Also still noticing you bitter Hillary supporters are still trying to cry racism as to why she lost. Nope, she was a horrible candidate who’s economic position screamed the same neo-liberalism that keeps the wealth flowing to the top while giving the middle finger to the poor, even if it’s not as blatant as how the Republicans do it. If Sanders was the candidate, he would have won those necessary states that were normally considered locks for Demcorats, like Wisconsin and Michigan. Hell, he wouldn’t have taken them for granted and actually showed up to them once in the election unlike Hillary. Her and her faction of the left mistakenly put social policy ahead of the economy in an election that was clearly a referendum on the economy. While it wasn’t burning to the ground like under the stewardship of W. If people don’t feel confident and aren’t rising with the tide of the economy, they’re going to be malcontent and want change from the status quo. Which Hillary personified. Trump, for all his cons and lies was able to tap into that, which is the reason he managed to get those poor, white voters.
The longer you treat those who aren’t zealots like the enemy. The longer you’re going to see this cycle of where the left only makes gains after the right burns everything to the ground only to see the left implode within one or two election cycles. Or worse, lose elections that should be a slam dunk.
I think there will be opportunity for it to get better for the reasons Teixeira puts forward, because it simply must. It will, as always, be extraordinarily bloody for all the reasons you mention.
The left will eventually triumph because the generational shift that began in the late 1960’s and the conservative backlash and culture wars that followed are losing steam as the people of that generation are reaching old age and dying out.
The Great Depression of the 1930’s, the rise of Franklin Roosevelt and his economic reforms, and WWII established America as both a global and economic super power. The people who lived through the Depression and fought in WWII realized the value of government. Roosevelt’s New Deal, the Keynesian ideal of massive government spending programs to stimulate economic growth when markets stagnate and fail, and the spending on the war effort essentially turned the economy around on a dime. It was sustained throughout the rest of the 20th century with progressive taxation, which not only paid for our social programs, but also acted as an obstacle to the ability for too few people to amass too much wealth and power, thereby limiting excessive influence over the government by the wealthy.
The next generation born after WWII, the Baby Boomers, did not live through the Great Depression. They inherited an economy in which a person (if you were white and male, at least) through adequate effort and hard work, get a job and/or go to college, raise a family, buy a house, etc. It’s very easy for people born under these fortunate conditions to conclude that everything they attained were solely due to their own efforts without considering the sacrifices made by their parents in order to build the system that the Baby Boomers benefited from. Therefore, they did not have the same inclination to participate in (i.e. contribute to in the form of taxes) as their parents.
As the Baby Boomers were reaching adolescence and young adulthood in the mid-1960’s, great social changes occured. The Civil Rights movement was underway. When de-segregation was mandated by Lyndon Johnson, the Baby Boomers became the last generation to grow up during the Jim Crow era. In addition, the Vietnam War began, as well as the anti-war/hippie movement. Feminism, culminating with the Roe Vs. Wade decision to legalize abortion was also a significant factor that affected this generation of people.
The social upheavals of the late '60s brought about significant social changes, but the majority of Americans were still far more socially conservative, religious, and racist than they are today. The conservative backlash against the late 60’s began with the Republican Party’s “Southern Strategy” to attract white southern voters, disillusioned with the Democrat’s support of racial equality. Southern religious evangelicals, angered by the sexual permissiveness, secularization, rock music, and especially Roe Vs. Wade, began to mobilize into a political movement, and were also embraced by the Republican Party. By the late 1970’s the Baby Boomers had reached their early 30’s, which is the age that people tend to be settled with families, economically established, and begin voting in large numbers, just in time to elect Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980.
Reagan, of course, began dismantling the New Deal model in favor of a supply-side/trickle down economic model. Lowering top marginal tax rates, we were told, would ease the financial burden on the wealthiest Americans, who (as “job creators”) would spend all that newly accessible wealth on expanding their businesses and hiring more workers. The whole idea is fairly ridiculous, as a “job creator” will have no incentive to spend money on expansion/hiring unless there is sufficient consumer demand to justify doing so. The real motive behind Reaganomics was the Republican goal of oligarchy, reached by reducing the tax burden on the wealthy, reducing government regulations, and allowing the wealthy to concentrate vast amounts of wealth and power.
The Baby Boomers remained the largest voting bloc throughout the 80’s and 90’s. Clinton was able to win the Presidency, but only after he (and the Democrats in general) moved into a more corporate-friendly, centrist economic direction. Essentially the Democrats had sacrificed their New Deal progressive economic principles for the sake of political expediency. Bush followed after disillusionment with Clinton’s impeachment and Al Gore’s bland, uninspiring campaign. 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq (as well as another bland, uninspiring candidate in the form of John Kerry) guaranteed Bush a 2nd term.
During the Bush years, the WWII generation began to die off in large numbers. As Baby Boomers aged, more younger, liberal Gen X voters reached their 30’s and the first wave of millenials had reached voting age. The population had grown steadily more racially diverse, more socially permissive, and more socially and economically liberal as the pre-civil rights population was slowly being replaced by the post-civil rights population. We saw Obama elected for 2 terms, but we also saw the older white conservatives resisting in the form of the 2010 midterm elections and the rise of the Tea Party.
Presently, the WWII generation is almost totally died off. Baby Boomers are now senior citizens and are beginning to die off. The remaining generations are less religious, more racially diverse, more tolerant and socially liberal than at any other time in history. Furthermore, just as the Baby Boomers were shaped politically by the events of the late 60’s, the Millenials came of age during 9/11, the debacle of the Iraq War, and the failure of Reaganomics/supply-side economics.
The 2016 elections were the result of several different factors. First, the Democratic establishment failed to realize that Obama won by running as a Progressive with an inspirational message of hope and optimism–largely the same (minus the Progressive part) strategy that Reagan employed. Hillary Clinton, who deservedly or not, was seen as a pro-war, pro-corporate, economic centrist and was also vilified and despised by the right, was the wrong candidate for this past election. She’s a brilliant person and was far more qualified than any of the Republican candidates, but her lack of inspiring economic message, the constant allegations and mischaracterizations from the right, and overconfidence that she could just coast to victory by being less repugnant than Trump all worked against her. By contrast, Bernie Sanders, who did have a progressive economic message overwhelmingly won younger Democrats and white working class union voters.
Trump managed to upset the Republican establishment and ultimately the Presidency with his own economic message of jobs and stimulus spending (when Republicans talk about stimulus they call it “growth”–when Democrats talk about stimulus, the Republicans call it “socialism”) and also by appealing to the racial/xenophobic fears and resentments , anti-government Tea Party dolts. Trump himself, even more so than Sarah Palin, represents the culmination of the past 40 years of Republican strategy backfiring in their faces. The Republicans have spent the past few decades pandering to people who were too stupid to realize that they were voting against their own economic self interests in exchange for having their fears, ignorance, and bigotries enabled and validated. Problem is you can only appeal to the most negative aspects of people’s natures for so long until it gets out of control and turns on you. Right now we’ve got a Republican Party–a traditionally pro-business, anti-tax, anti-regulatory party–taken over by evangelical lunatics, racists, and ignorant redneck hicks. Trump himself is dangerously stupid, to the point of making George W. Bush look like a quantum physicist. He was able to rally enough of an angry mob to defeat a weak, barely competent Hillary campaign that was backed by an even more inept and incompetent DNC that seemed more intent on maintaining their status quo against Bernie than actually winning against Trump. Had the Democratic nominee been Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders or if Hillary had run a slightly better campaign, Trump would have failed. I see this election as the last and final victory of a dying generation and a dying set of socio-political ideologies. The left likely will triumph. Whether or not their triumph is sustained for the long term will likely depend on the Democrats embracing the economic policies described in this article and promoted by progressives like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.