Dems have won the early branding war. Terms like ‘death bill’ or ‘tax cut bill’ are defining the debate. This is clearly not a health care reform bill.
Mitch’s secrecy gambit has also backfired for now b/c it hardened opposition in NV, brought Heller a challenger and Heller is now boxed in to a no vote position. He can flip flop with enough Adelson money, but if he does, he comes into '18 as an unprincipled hack rather than a principled conservative.
My AHCA passage meter has dropped from 75% down to 58%. I think Mitch is at 50 votes. It’s a soft 50, where he has the potential to move up to 55 or drop below 45 depending on how the political winds blow.
GOPers will be looking at how these ad campaigns against Heller play out. My sense is that GOP voters would prefer that their members pick a different hill to die on. There is no great affection for the AHCA as there would be for something like ‘tax reform’ or immigration. That said, the Kochs and Adelsons of the world usually get their way in the GOP.
This, to me, resembles a very bad relationship or business deal that people are doing out of obligation rather than a sense of purpose. There is also a real ideological divide between the ‘Root and Branch’ GOPers (Cruz, Lee, Paul etc.) and the Medicaid Robbers (Collins et al). I would still favor Mitch to push this bill through, but smart GOPers should be able to see that the future is better for them if they don’t touch health care.
