Discussion: America's Failure — and Russia and Iran's Success — in Syria's Cataclysmic Civil War

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#21

Thanks to Obama and Kerry and quite a few others, where Syria stands at this moment is in itself a major achievement. Seems to me the slate is pretty clean from our side.

Of course, when it comes to involvement we can be pretty sure where PBO would have gone and with this transition we are likely up for an advanced inside out process provided that analyses such as this continue to evolve and be taken seriously. (and that McConnell, McCain and McLindsey don’t completely mess with the painting.)

Great piece, great discussion.

#22

In a twisted sort of way Bush also takes “credit” for formation of Shia crescent today. The Saudis are mad at him for disturbing status quo & invading Iraq.

#23

My concern here is that Tillerson is a pragmatist but others in Trump team are Israel hawks. Looks like Tillerson wants to tighten sanctions on Iran to appease Trump.

#24

If Syria hadn’t supported Hezbollah, USA would never have bothered about Assad.

#25

He he, I also consider Bush as the father of the “Shia Crescent”. Can’t make up my mind whether he is a mere Idiot or an Idiot Savant.

#26

I’m having difficulty with what “foreign policy” means here. In the past it’s meant American meddling followed by disaster. We saw it in Iran, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and it seems “foreign policy” means doing it again. Looks like Obama broke the mold. Policy in Syria was to help the rebels overthrow Assad. Not to establish American dominance. When the rebel’s proved to be outmatched Obama did not, like many of his critics wanted, go balls to the wall and invade the place. He largely kept the USA out. That’s why history may record Syria as an Obama failure but not one like Iraq or Afghanistan. This one will actually end.

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#27

The reason that Iran and Russia came out on top is very simple – their only interest was keeping Assad (for Russia) and his Shi’ite ( for Iran) regime and power.

It’s pretty easy to identify who you’re supposed to support when they run the country.

Trying to decide which rebel faction(s) was/were worth supporting isn’t.

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#28

So, you are saying that Obama is just as bad as the rest of them. Glad we can agree on that minimum at least.

#29

Never said anything like that. Projection fail.

#30

Nahh. Just pointing out that your redirection leads to another Obama hope and change failure.

#31

What this all means, of course, in 20/20 hindsight, at least, is that the US should have aligned with Saddam; Bush was on the wrong side when he attacked Iraq… the US removed the only strongman in the region… the rest, as they say, is history. These guys all need to read more Kipling — who got the region right 100 years ago.

#32

Wonderful thoughtful analysis and a great read. Thank you so much!

#33

Except it wasn’t as the ruling family/party are neither, but Alawi. You’re conflating the civil war with what has happened because of Iranian, ISIL and al Qaeda involvement. The overwhelming majority of Syrians are Sunni. The Iranian involvement is the only thing, really, that it makes it otherwise.

#34

Hardly. What all this shows is that we should have stayed home. We need to gradually disengage from the Muslim world. We have no allies there (ME and S. and C Asia) nor anyone we should ally with. We do not share common cultures, religious sensibilities (though this should never have anything to do with foreign policy) or concepts of how one should govern.

#35

@jeffrey: Thanks! I still think that Saudi Arabia’s backing of virulently toxic barbaric Wahabbi Sunni interests is driving much of terrorism and jihadi terrorism in the world. They are killing Shia in Yemen, in Bahrain, in Syria, in Pakistan and elsewhere. We are an unabashedly Wahabbi sunni-supporting state when it comes to our foreign policy.

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#36

Agreed. But not because we’ve “picked sides.” It’s just that those pesky Saudis grow so much broccoli, I mean have so much oil (that we don’t really need anymore).

#37

The emergence of LED lighting and solar power is going to wipe out a huge chunk of the oil and gas needed for lighting. Home refrigeration and heating is the only thing that need high voltage electricity or oil/gas.

#38

Exactly… How the outcome effects Isreal… and Saudi Arabia too…is the only lens that sees US policy as a failure in Syria… A lens that focuses on Americas needs would see our policy as very prudent…
Me, I don’t see The Shia as haveing any less a right to stand up and fight as anyone else… I don’t see Isreal, The Sunni states or the Shia states as haveing lock on morality… I don’t believe any of them deserve a victory over the others… But most of the time…the media does not share these priors… They hold Isreal as morally superior… and therefore they believe Israel is deserving of us wiping out or weakening the Shia for them… Else we have failed…

#39

The Obama administration policies did not “fail” America. They have severed America very well. His policies limited our exposure to a hopeless goal, a goal imposed on us by the right and tradition…

Obama’s policy did fail to advance Isreal’s goals… and that is the sole justification for declaring America’s Syrian policy a failure…

The way Isreal’s well-being is continually presented as synonymous with America’s wellbeing by most of the American press is downright Orwellian…

#40

I am always surprised when Americans comment on the Iraq war and focus on the the number of deaths(4,486) and the number of non-fatal casualties (official count 32,021) of American troops and fail to mention the documented civilian deaths in Iraq, estimated to be over 170,000, plus an additional 70,000 Iraqi combatants. https://www.iraqbodycount.org/ and https://antiwar.com/casualties/. When one considers the fact that the US invaded Iraq in an imperial quest for oil and a petty desire for revenge after Bush I’s invasion during the first Gulf War but which was deceitfully presented to the American people as revenge for Iraq’s supposed role in 9/11 (completely debunked) and its nuclear weapons buildup (no evidence whatsoever), it is a complete mystery why Bush II, Cheney, and their advisors have not been tried for war crimes. We should of course add to this the enormous cost of the war (approximately $2 Trillion) currently being borne by US taxpayers, and the resultant inability of our government to provide adequate services to the American people, as well as the daily horror under which Iraqi citizens now must live. But what is also little discussed is that ISIS was founded by the 250,000 members of the Iraqi military who found themselves on the streets after Bush II and Bremer disbanded the Iraqi army in May 2003. http://time.com/3900753/isis-iraq-syria-army-united-states-military/ So not only do we bear the burden of a continuing series of national security and foreign policy failures in the middle east, of which the Iraq war is only one egregious part, but also the direct cause of the brutally violent civil wars in Libya, Syria, and the ISIS led and inspired terror attacks in Europe, Turkey, Egypt, and elsewhere.

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